+ 
+
+ Centuries ago, men attempted to fly by putting wings on
+ their arms and flapping really hard. Logically, in their
+ minds, it should have worked. Birds fly. Birds have wings.
+ Therefore, having wings should mean man will fly.
+
+ The gentlemen, puffed with pride,
+ failed every time. Had they examined the nature of flight,
+ as opposed to the nature of birds, they would have realized
+ the concept of lift (as Bernoulli did). One must examine the
+ physics of the flight rather than putting feathers on one’s
+ arms in imitation of birds. The descendants of these birdmen
+ are with us today. In the gaming industry, they represent
+ some of the highest gaming executives and esteemed analysts.
+
+ Nintendo is flying high. Rather than
+ examine the nature of this flight, the birdmen are
+ mesmerized by the feathers. The analysts and executives do
+ not see the concepts of disruption and don’t even understand
+ the Blue Ocean principles (though they think they do). The
+ feathers they see on Nintendo’s ascent are casual games.
+ Therefore, they surmise, if they make casual games
+ then they will be flying high with Nintendo.
+
+ There is nothing new here. Years ago,
+ when Grand Theft Auto 3 hit big, all the birdmen
+ began putting out Grand Theft Auto 3 clones. Years
+ before that, it was first person shooters. More years before
+ that, it was bloody fighters. One can find the birdmen back
+ in the 8-bit generation making platformers. They would look
+ at Super Mario Brothers and go, “Oh, I get it! We
+ just need to make a game with cute music, colorful world,
+ and upgrades like the magic mushroom!” Slapping wings
+ on their arms, these games flopped. Amazingly, despite how
+ many times the birdmen fall down, each generation they are
+ ready to put on feathers and jump off a cliff.
+
+
+ How the Casual Fallacy was Born
+
+ The game industry was, and still is,
+ distinctively hardcore. They generate their profits from
+ sequels and big blockbuster games. The developers are all
+ hardcore. The publishers are generally hardcore as well.
+
+ When a hardcore gamer looks at a
+ hardcore game, he sees sophistication, magnificence,
+ and, most important, art as if it were a mirror image
+ facing him. When a hardcore gamer looks as a casual game, he
+ sees simplicity, non-art, easiness, and, in
+ sum, a retardation of gaming. Hardcore view casual
+ games not as progress in gaming but as games tailor made for
+ gaming retards.
+
+ “Retards!?” says a shocked reader.
+ “Surely you can’t say what you mean!” Why not? When a casual
+ gamer picks up the standard dual shock controller, he gets
+ confused. He doesn’t have the patience to wade through these
+ elaborate 3d worlds or memorize fourteen button
+ combinations. While the hardcore call him “stupid”, he
+ retaliates by calling gaming “stupid”.
+
+ Anytime you read ‘casual games’ in the
+ news, just replace ‘casual’ with the word ‘retard’ and you
+ will get how it is truly perceived by the industry. “There
+ is a casual gamer boom!” should translate to “There is a
+ retard gamer boom!”. The “EA Casual Games Division” really
+ is translated to “EA Retard Games Division”. “Why are you
+ calling casual gamers retarded!?” thunders one reader. I am
+ not. I am saying that the hardcore industry is the one who
+ thinks this way. ‘Casual’ is just a nice way of saying
+ ‘dumb’ in their eyes.
+
+ The reason why hardcore gamers’ hearts
+ sink when a company says they will make the game include
+ ‘casuals’ is because they know that all the edge,
+ difficulty, and passion will be ripped out to make a
+ generic, easy, and soul-less game.
+
+ Despite every company and their dog
+ making these ‘casual’ games, the so-called casual audience
+ is not buying them (just as they didn’t buy the platformer
+ clones of the 8-bit generation, the fighter clones of the
+ 16-bit generation, the GTA clones of last generation, and so
+ on). When seeing their ‘casual games’ flop while seeing
+ Nintendo’s ‘casual’ games in the bestsellers, the third
+ parties growl and say, “IT IS ALL NINTENDO’S FAULT! People
+ only buy Nintendo games! Third parties can’t succeed on this
+ platform!”
+
+ The problem is not in these companies’
+ execution of their plan. The problem is their world-view.
+ Their perception is totally off, and it is costing these
+ companies millions upon millions of dollars. Don’t you
+ think, guys, that it is time to think about things a littler
+ harder before you waste more millions?
+
+ 
+
+
+ There is No Casual Gamer
+
+ “What!” echoes someone from the
+ balcony. “If this is true, then what will we use for this
+ generation’s meme? What will our editorialists write about?
+ We have spilled so much ink on this subject and apply the
+ ‘casual gaming’ template to every story that comes out. How
+ can we exist without it?”
+
+ I do not know nor do I care. Hopefully,
+ you birdmen can become a little more original.
+
+ Take the industry of home speakers (as
+ many gamers are familiar with it). There is a wide range of
+ product lines, is there not Mr. Reader?
+
+ “That is so,” replied Mr. Reader.
+ “There are very basic, bargain based speakers to the mid
+ range. Then, there is the more expensive high range.”
+
+ Very well… So the higher one goes, the
+ more expensive it gets?
+
+ “Yes, Mr. Malstrom. Upper tier speakers
+ are EXTREMELY expensive.”
+
+ Now tell me, my figment-of-my-words,
+ how does user knowledge act along the product line?
+
+ “Well, knowledge is the defining
+ characteristic of the tiers. The more knowledge one has,
+ that means the more audiophile one is, the more likely he or
+ she will reach for the upper tier. At the bottom, the users
+ know little about audio and do not care to know. The ones at
+ the top are very passionate about their audio and will pick
+ out separate speakers and subwoofer just to maximize their
+ experience.”
+
+ Are you saying the people on the bottom
+ tier are stupid? Are they just casual listeners?
+
+ “Only an upper tier person would define
+ them as ‘casual’. They just don’t have that much passion
+ about audio so they don’t have much knowledge.”
+
+ And what creates this passion?
+
+ Mr. Reader smiled. “By having audio
+ they want to listen to.”
+
+ If there is audio they want to listen
+ to, they will start buying these speakers, become more
+ knowledgeable, and keep upgrading those speakers as they
+ move up to the higher tier?
+
+ “Yes.”
+
+ The Upmarket and the Downmarket
+
+ There is no casual gamer. There is no
+ hardcore gamer. There is only the downmarket and the
+ upmarket.
+
+ In any type of product, there is a set
+ of obstacles that need to be realized before the product can
+ be enjoyed. Some people, especially technical savvy, can get
+ through these barriers sooner than others.
+
+ 
Compare the above graph to users’
+ experience in game software. The simple games of the Atari
+ days have undeniably become more complex. To those who grew
+ up with video game consoles, they were able to stretch their
+ user peaks. These current players, who call themselves the
+ hardcore, became the upmarket.
+
+ Many people did not grow up with video
+ games or kept playing them after the Atari 2600 and NES.
+ Look at the above graph and think of their reaction to
+ playing games today. Obviously, they will be frustrated as
+ they look in the manual, swear at themselves, and generally
+ conclude that gaming isn’t for them. Someone content with
+ Pong is not going to ‘jump in’ a huge 3d game world.
+
+ When the upmarket views the so-called
+ casual games or even games of the past (such as the classics
+ on the Virtual Console), they are on the left side thinking
+ “Nice, but I wish I could do more…” The games are not
+ elaborate enough for them. In Wii Tennis, the upmarket keeps
+ saying, “The game is nice but I wish I could move my player
+ around myself” or “Wii Play is nice but I wish the games
+ were more elaborate” or “Downloading Mario Kart 64 is nice
+ but I wish I could play it online with new tracks…”
+
+ Obviously, the pleasure thresholds of
+ upmarket and downmarket differ (with a variety of different
+ users in the middle). But for simplification purposes, based
+ on these two areas, we get two different paths to user
+ experience:
+ 
Let me ask you an honest question. Take
+ your favorite games or, rather, the games that put a great
+ first impression on you. How soon were you kicking ass in
+ these games?
+
+ Most likely, very soon. Richard
+ Garriott, aka Lord British, revealed many years ago (back
+ when Origin Systems still existed) why Diablo and the
+ RTS games such as Red Alert and Warcraft 2 became so
+ popular. With Diablo, it is because you level up
+ extremely fast at first. You feel like a badass early on
+ which encourages you to go further. The RTS games did the
+ same with the first missions of Warcraft 2 and Red
+ Alert as extremely simple (the first Red Alert
+ Soviet mission had the player just point and click to tell
+ planes where to bomb). Anyone who has played World of
+ Warcraft will realize how fast the game makes one feel
+ like a ‘badass’ in the first ten levels of the game. Other
+ MMORPGs start off much slower which would explain their
+ slower sales.
+
+ These downmarket users, if properly
+ treated, will travel upstream to become upmarket users.
+ World of Warcraft novices often become the most die-hard
+ raiders. Many had Command and Conquer or Warcraft
+ 2/Starcraft as their first RTS. They played the simple
+ levels and moved upstream to more sophistication. (It should
+ be noted that World of Warcraft, Warcraft 2, Red
+ Alert, and Diablo are set up to take advantage of
+ this. The first units or choices the player has are small
+ but it branches over time and becomes more complex.)
+ Miyamoto was surprised that the Touch Generation games on
+ the DS had users go upstream to play Mario Kart DS
+ and New Super Mario Brothers (both of which broke
+ sales records).
+
+
+ The Upstream Games
+
+ When you think back to the great classics of gaming, one
+ finds games such as Pac-Man, Super Mario Brothers, Sonic
+ the Hedgehog, Mega Man 2, Dragon Quest, Legend of Zelda,
+ among other software. While all these games are obsolete in
+ technological terms and, perhaps, even in genre terms,
+ significant talent was used to build them. Some may argue
+ that the talent in those games is even superior to today’s
+ games! While these games were much simpler with less
+ features, they still required the same amount of talent and
+ force of creativity that today’s blockbusters do.
+
+ The current generation, the High
+ Definition generation, ups the ante with offering different
+ visual displays for different television sets. Considering
+ most people do not really know what ‘high definition’ means
+ (or even how to hook up their consoles to the internet), it
+ is clear that gaming’s complexity is advancing further than
+ most people can adapt.
+
+ Today, what is considered an “8-bit
+ game” would be considered a “casual game”. Evidence of this
+ is seen with 8-bit and 16-bit spiritual sequels emerging
+ only on handhelds while the consoles stay near the more
+ complex games. Ports of Super Mario Brothers, Sonic the
+ Hedgehog, and The Legend of Zelda have appeared
+ on handhelds. What used to be classics have become damned as
+ “casual” games. This is the current industry hive-mind view.
+ This is the hardcore view. But what is the reality?
+
+ The reality is that all industries,
+ including gaming, exist in a series of tiers. While the
+ tiers of gaming are debatable, I have provided a sufficient
+ list for this discussion:
+ 
Let me give examples of these tiers:
+
+ Tactical RPG/Strategy- Fire
+ Emblem, Final Fantasy Tactics, Master of Orion, Command and
+ Conquer, Warcraft, MMORPGs
+ Epic RPG- (‘epic’ meaning very
+ story based) Later Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest
+ games, Ultima, practically most JRPGs
+ Tactical Shooter- Ghost
+ Recon, SOCOM, Counter-Strike
+ First Person Shooter- Halo,
+ Unreal Tournament, Call of Duty
+ Third Person Shooter- Gears
+ of War, Grand Theft Auto 3, Resident Evil
+ 3D Action Adventure- Zelda:
+ Ocarina of Time, Eternal Darkness
+ 3D Platformer- Super Mario
+ 64, Super Mario Galaxy, Rayman 2
+ Basic RPG- Early Final
+ Fantasy and Dragon Quest. (Likely) Dragon
+ Quest IX
+ Action Adventure- Legend of
+ Zelda, Metroid
+ Adventure- King’s Quest,
+ Monkey Island
+ 2D Platformer- Super Mario
+ Brothers, Sonic the Hedgehog
+ Mini-Games / Arcade Style-
+ Wii Play, Centipede, Galaga, Pac-Man
+ Puzzle- Tetris, Dr. Mario
+ Non-Fiction Game- Wii Sports,
+ Wii Fit, Brain Age, Nintendogs, cookbook software, how
+ to learn English, etc. Flight Simulator, Sims
+
+ Most of these tiers are
+ self-explanatory. The further upmarket one goes, the more
+ one gets drawn into another world. (Before someone writes me
+ and says, “WHERE IS THE RACING TIER, MALSTROM!???”, realize
+ that the list is not intended to be perfect but just show
+ the difference of segments from upmarket to downmarket.) The
+ non-fiction games do not attempt to pull the player into a
+ fiction world. Games such as Brain Age or even Flight
+ Simulator cater to the players’ interests of the real world.
+ Brain Age promises to make you smarter, Wii Fit tries to get
+ you more ‘fit’, and so on. Wii Sports is popular because
+ people actually BELIEVE they are using the same exact sports
+ skills in the game as opposed to just pushing some buttons
+ and playing ‘make-believe’.
+
+ The problem is not that games have
+ become more complex over the years; it is that lower tiered
+ games were becoming less and less made. This meant less new
+ gamers and that gaming became less exciting to the
+ mainstream. Games have become more expensive to make which
+ means publishers have huddled toward the upmarket.
+ Meanwhile, the downmarket was being unused until flash games
+ and online simple games caught on big with computer users.
+ "There are more Flash installs available in people's + homes and even on mobile devices than all of the sold + consoles of the last two generations put together. It is + everywhere…”+ These downmarket tiers became abandoned + and became a ‘Blue Ocean’ where no one was fighting over. + Nintendo aimed to become dominant on these lower tiers, the + Blue Ocean, first.
+
+ -Raph Koster, president of Areae and designer of Ultima + Online and Star Wars: Galaxies. SOURCE: + http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33498
+
+ Since these lower tier games were the + most critical for Nintendo, they put their first string + teams to make games such as Nintendogs, Brain Age, Wii + Sports, Wii Play, among others. Birdmen, who mistake the + downmarket for ‘casual games’ (i.e. retard games), keep + putting their third or fourth string teams to make these + type of games.
+
+
+
+
+ The above picture illustrates the Casual Fallacy well. + Wii Sports is a game stuffed with complexity (of its + physics), replay value, and many game modes. It is what + people want: a friendly but powerful game. Consumers want + more games like Wii Sports but they get the plastic + dog instead. Sure the game is ‘friendly’, but the power + behind it is gone. It is a neutered game castrated from any + purpose.
+
+ If the reader happens to be a member of + the NES Generation, compare the games of youth of the + so-called ‘kids games’ you got on the computer to Super + Mario Brothers and Legend of Zelda. The tailor + made ‘kids games’ then ended up plastic dogs while the + Nintendo classics ended up being the real dog. Western + publishers were stunned that the 1980s children were + abandoning their specialized ‘kids games’ to play these + ‘Japanese games’.
+
+ If the reader happens to be a + hardcore player (oh, that word!), compare games like + Grand Theft Auto 3 and Halo to wannabe GTA and + Halo clones. The wannabe hardcore games will put in + gratuitous violence or sex or space aliens to ‘give the game + the edge’. These wannabe games end up the plastic dog which + annoys hardcore gamers to no end.
+
+ Birdmen can only make plastic dogs. In + order to make the real dog, they would have to study the + concept of flight instead of studying the wings. Passionate + developers also tend to create passionate products (which is + why Blizzard puts on any business contract that its + developers will be free to make the games they want). Will + hardcore developers have a passion to create downmarket + products? They certainly didn’t become game developers to + make competitors to Peggle and online flash games. + What we will end up with are more plastic dogs.
+
+ Why does the industry not treat the + downmarket well? Outside of developer passion, the answer + comes down to money. The upmarket games are far more + profitable. It is a sure thing that the upmarket will buy + the next first person shooter or epic RPG. And since the + upmarket games take the most time and are costly, publishers + will only put their first string teams on those games. The + downmarket, that the industry thinks are its worst + customers, sees these games as less profitable and cheaper + to make. In their mind, it is perfectly logical to assign + their fourth string teams to do these games as if they mess + up, little harm is done.
+
+ Nintendo considered the downmarket to + be the most important and put their first string teams to + make games such as Wii Sports. The result is an + explosion of sales with these low tier Nintendo titles. The + industry looks at this and, idiotically, says, “Oh! A casual + gamer boom! Quick! Let us all start making casual games to + ride this wave!”
+
+ The problems with this worldview are:
+
+ 1) The lower tier market has always been around. It was just + overshot and abandoned as generations passed on. The high + growth of online flash games showed this market was always + alive and well.
+
+ 2) The industry still is putting their fourth string teams + to work on these games. When they make a Wii game, they make + it for ‘casuals’ which means they attempt to make the game + playable for retards (in their minds). They dumb everything + down, put cutesy generic art and music in, and ultimately + make a flash game on steroids. Dull! Dull! Dull!
+
+ Don’t take it from me. Miyamoto has + told them personally:
+ "If there's only one piece of advice + that I could give to the managers of third party companies, + it would be that a lot of times it seems that when they're + putting games out on Nintendo hardware, those games are + being developed by their third-string team or their + fourth-string team. Maybe that's because they see those + products as being unique projects or somewhat smaller-scale + projects. But when Nintendo puts out a title that is + designed to really support and sell its hardware, that title + is always developed by one of our number one teams. And so I + think that when it comes to the question of trying to + compete with our software, I would really like to see the + parties try to do that with their number one teams rather + than with the third- or fourth-string teams. [Laughs.]"
+
+ -Shigeru Miyamoto, SOURCE: + + http://www.gamespot.com/pages/unions/read_article.php?topic_id=25522312&union_id=8913
+ The ‘Flight’ is in the Developmental Process
+
+ As someone studying Nintendo recently, I have noticed how + the games Nintendo produces are of a very different vein + than third parties. Third party games tend to be more hit + and miss while Nintendo games almost assuredly have some + sort of quality there which makes their games easy buys (and + builds up tremendous customer loyalty). Some companies are + able to replicate this same effect such as Blizzard. Also, + interesting, the Nintendo/Blizzard games tend to hit both + upmarket and downmarket users. What are they doing + differently?
+
+ ”People buy Nintendo and Blizzard games because of their + franchise worlds.” But other third party games have as rich + of a franchise world. “Nintendo and Blizzard have the money + to delay their games and perfect them. Most third parties do + not have that luxury.” While this is true, it raises the + question as to how Nintendo and Blizzard got to where they + are. They started small like everyone else and, at a time, + also didn’t have the money.
+
+ I have found a major clue to the ‘flight’ is in the + developmental process.
+ +
+ 
+ Most third parties have the development cycle of the
+ waterfall pictured above. Production is King to them. They
+ focus on utilizing their assets in the most effective
+ manner. Western companies are under more pressure to deliver
+ quarterly results which often results in more rushed games.
+ This approach is not ‘wrong’ as effective production does
+ lower cost and create profit. This also explains the parade
+ of sequels and ‘samey’ type games.
+
+ Nintendo and companies like Blizzard use the Spiral where
+ customer satisfaction is King. This leads to delays in
+ production, projects pulled entirely, and constant testing.
+ The result is a product that creates passionate users.
+
+ The third one, the question mark, is where the User is King.
+ Many companies know their current ‘waterfall’ production
+ based method has a future of rising costs and declining
+ passion so they are turning to the Internet to make the User
+ as King. These include episodic gaming as well as
+ downloadable content. Will Wright is moving in this
+ direction. The idea is that development cycles begin moving
+ extremely fast as now the user is directly or indirectly
+ involved. Companies are confusing the User as King to mean
+ Customer Satisfaction is King.
+
+ ”But Malstrom, what is the difference?”
+
+ The market did not need Super Mario Brothers until
+ Miyamoto created it. Then, the market could not live without
+ it.
+
+ Blizzard studied MMORPGs like Everquest and realized
+ there were too many barriers in the game that kept many
+ people from ‘kicking ass’. “How do we fix this?” the
+ Blizzard developers asked. The market did not need World
+ of Warcraft until Blizzard created it. Then, the market
+ could not live without it.
+
+ When Will Wright made The Sims, he did not focus on
+ the ‘waterfall’ effective production method. The market did
+ not need The Sims until Wright created it. Then, the
+ market could not live without it.
+
+ When Capcom (back in the good old days where small
+ development teams could harness their passions) made Mega
+ Man II, the market did not need it (Mega Man did
+ not sell well). But once it was made, the market could not
+ live without it.
+
+ The difference between Customer Satisfaction and letting the
+ User in control is the matter of surprise which is critical
+ in entertainment. It is ridiculous to ask your customers
+ what surprises them.
+
+ High definition games are just pushing development more in
+ the ‘waterfall’ model more due to the rising cost of art
+ assets. With more emphasis on the production model, this
+ will create less interesting games (and explains why the
+ Industry got into a rut as development costs went up over
+ the generations).
+
+ It should also be noted that analysts tend to gauge the
+ market based on production methods. You never will read
+ Pachter talking about customer satisfaction but about the
+ production model in the software or hardware company. He
+ will talk about lowering component costs but not the
+ behavior of the customers themselves. Until Third Parties
+ re-tool their development process away from the production
+ based ‘waterfall method’, they will never equal the success
+ or the passionate customers created by Nintendo, Blizzard,
+ and others.
+
+ 
+
+ Why are independent games suddenly becoming more appealing
+ than big budget games? Why do retro games hold appeal while
+ their huge budget ‘re-imaginings’ become flops? Why is
+ pixilated Super Mario Brothers revered while slick
+ and voiced modern Mario merely tolerated?
+
+ There are diminishing returns with production values. For
+ some reason in entertainment, if the production values are
+ too high, the customers react unfavorably. This phenomenon
+ can be seen in movies and music as well. I personally
+ believe that if the customer senses too much production
+ value, he or she will sense the product attempting to be
+ more style over substance. The customer will then feel
+ ‘cheated’.
+
+ Wii Sports is an interesting case example. When the
+ game was previewed, gamers said, “OMG! They have no legs!
+ What is with these low poly-models?” Yet, undeniably, that
+ leads to part of the product’s charm.
+
+ While the so-called ‘casual games’ were overshot, it should
+ be understood that production values are turning gaming more
+ and more into style over substance. Even the hardcore gamers
+ prefer the ‘good old days’ of Tetris over
+ substance-less games with bloated production values. In
+ order for companies to focus on the ‘flight’ as opposed to
+ the ‘feathers’, they will need to examine to see if their
+ production values are overshooting the market.
+
+
+ Advertisers, Not Consumers, Want Casual Games
+
+ ”But Malstrom! But Malstrom!” you say. “Reports are coming
+ out (like this:
+
+ http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9400&Itemid=2)
+ which say Casual Games are booming! How can the Industry
+ ignore such a trend?
+
+ The answer is that the Industry has ignored these simple
+ online games for quite a long time.
+
+ ”I do not believe you! You just make up stuff to support
+ your arguments.”
+
+ You want proof? Then you shall have it:
2006
+A couple of years ago, even CNN was doing stories of the + rise of so-called casual games. What were our Industry + managers saying at this time? Oh yeah. They were saying that + Wii was a joke and the future was with high definition + graphics and top box media functions. It is amazing how the + Industry ‘discovers’ casual games only when the Wii succeeds + despite signs of popularity of low tier games everywhere at + this time period.”While sales of boxed PC games at retail are on a steep + decline -- 38 million games sold in the United States for + 2005 compared with 47 million games sold in 2004, according + to retail marking consultant the NPD Group -- casual + games are now enjoyed by an estimated 100 million PC users, + according to comScore Media Metrix.”
+
+
+ -CNN.com. SOURCE: + http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/fun.games/02/28/casual.games/
+
+ 2005
+
+
+ ”’Casual’ games have been getting some serious attention + lately. Just last week, the International Game Developers + Association (IGDA) – a large independent, non-profit + organization for game software developers – announced the + formation of the Casual Games Special Interest Group in + response to new opportunities in the casual gaming sector. + Over the next few weeks, the Game Initiative – a leading + producer of game industry events – will be hosting two + separate conferences focusing on the casual games market. + Microsoft’s Casual Games group will be a major sponsor of + both conferences.”Microsoft was singing the praises of ‘casual games’ back in + 2005, sponsored conferences on the subject, and considered + it to be the reason for new spectacular growth for them. + Today, in 2008, Microsoft says that it was taken by surprise + by the ‘casual boom’ with Wii’s success, but we know this is + categorically a lie. Microsoft always knew about the ‘boom’ + of ‘casual games’.
+
+ -Microsoft Press Release. SOURCE: + http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2005/jul05/07-19CasualGaming.mspx
+
+ 2004
+
+
+ ”Lyon and Richards are among the millions - mostly women + 35 to 54 - who play casual games online. It's a gray market + that earns companies $450 million annually, largely through + advertising (less than 2 percent of players actually pay to + subscribe). That number will triple by 2007, according to + tech research firm IDC. And talk about sticky: Pogo's + players spend about 24.8 million hours on the site each + month, says Nielsen/NetRatings. ‘Checkers is a big pickup + scene,’ says Frentzel. ‘And there's one guy who's written in + thousands of times requesting that we update our statistics + for hearts.’ ++ The use of games as a + pick-up scene might be the catalyst of Nolan Bushnell + deciding to make uWink. Anyway, even back in 2004, four + years ago, there was much talk about the casual gaming + boom.“‘Casual games are tapping into a Middle American + audience like few services on the Web do,’ says Erick + Hachenburg, senior vice president of global publishing for + EA. His company is locked in a bitter fight with Microsoft + and Yahoo! to serve this market. All three are expanding + their design teams, courting third-party developers, and + releasing hundreds of titles. But they all know there's only + one surefire way to win. As Pogo game producer Todd + Kerpelman puts it, ‘Make the next + + Tetris.’”
+
+ -David Kushner, “The Wrinkled Future + of Online Games”. SOURCE: + + http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/gaming.html
+
+ 2003
+
+ ”At Yahoo Games, the leading online game site, + Nielsen/NetRatings reports more than 8.5 million visitors + each month. Daniel Hart, the site's general manager, said + that its visitors spend more than 5.5 billion minutes a + month playing its casual games -- an average of more than 20 + minutes a day per user.+
+
+ “‘Casual gamers represent a substantial part of the overall + game audience if you include every possible game outlet and + genre,’ said Jay Horowitz, an analyst with Jupiter Research + who follows the video game industry. ‘In terms of + audience, 70 percent of the online community play casual + games.’
+
+ ”But he and other video game experts say the surge in + casual gaming is about much more. Rising costs and + production times for sophisticated games for hard-core + players have helped give companies like Gameloft, + WildTangent and Hexacto incentives to produce more and + better casual games. So have improved wireless services + and handsets, advanced gaming software formats, and firmer + pricing structures for the sale and delivery of games + online. And as those already drawn to games grow older and + have busier lives, they are looking for less time-consuming + diversions.” +-Michel Marriott, “The +Un-Doom + Boom”, Published: June 26, 2003. SOURCE: + +http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:USDvLnFA4tkJ:query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html%3Fres%3D9501E7DA163AF935A15755C0A9659C8B63&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a
+ Near the beginning of last generation, stories (such as
+ the above New York Times article) were coming out about the
+ boom in casual gaming. With more than five years to see the
+ trend of increased desire in lower tier games, how could so
+ many game industry managers miss the boat?
+
+ Malstrom motions you to come
+ closer. “Shh…” Malstrom whispers. “The real reason why so
+ many in the Industry have rallied about casual gaming since
+ the domination of the Wii is to escape blame for piss poor
+ decision making. They talk of casual gaming like it was a
+ ‘new trend’ despite it always existing and its increase on
+ PCs were generating newspaper articles half a decade ago. By
+ describing ‘casual gaming’ as an unforeseen explosion, they
+ save their necks from investors who would have rightly
+ penalized them for making bad business decisions. Pre-Wii,
+ Nintendo talked about appealing to non-gamers and former
+ gamers. Casual gamers are neither of those two.”
+
+ The truth is that regular PC games and console games
+ have begun overshooting the market for quite some time now.
+ What is described as a ‘casual game’ used to be the ‘bread
+ and butter’ of the Game Industry not too many years ago.
+
+ The big problem with current research methods is that they
+ are polling active gamers. What about the non-active ones?
+ And are the more hardcore game genres in true decline or are
+ the games overshooting the market and generating more and
+ more former gamers? (It should be noted that Nintendo
+ focused their market research on non-active gamers including
+ non-gamers and former gamers. Nintendo never aimed at
+ capturing ‘casual gamers’ in the same context that birdmen
+ speak today.)
+
+ The most important thing to keep in mind with ‘casual
+ gaming’ on PCs is that revenue is generally made from
+ advertisements. Currently, there is an advertisement crisis
+ as less and less people watch television or read newspapers.
+ Consumers now have greater control on being able to edit out
+ advertisements. Advertising agencies are desperate to reach
+ people. It is no surprise that advertisers are rushing over
+ one another to get to these ‘casual games’.
+
+ The problem is that advertisers will want these games more
+ than the consumers will. “But look at the growth, Malstrom!”
+ Trends are double edged. It is good to be in front of them
+ but bad when one is on the wrong side. Low tier game growth
+ will not go on forever especially with everyone treating it
+ like a new gold rush. Soon, advertisers will be pushing
+ these games more than consumers demand.
+
+ While Nintendo accurately interpreted the growth in low tier
+ gaming on PCs to mean the traditional market was overshot,
+ this ‘Blue Ocean’ would allow Nintendo to perform the
+ nastiest business move conceived. It will be Microsoft and
+ Sony’s worst nightmare.
+
+ Difference Between World-Views
Nintendo’s worldview is simple: aim at
+ making hits on the downmarket to make the Wii platform
+ dominate the lower tiers. Then slowly move upmarket.
+
+ The rest of the industry has a
+ completely different worldview: view the ‘explosion’ in
+ downmarket games as a unique phenomenon (in this case, the
+ fictional “Casual Games Phenomenon”), and then assign many
+ teams to make these ‘casual games’. Instead of trying to
+ understand Nintendo’s flight, they are putting on wings and
+ trying to flap. Wii gamers become frustrated while
+ Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 gamers laugh and say, “If you
+ want to play REAL games, buy a real gaming console!
+ Hah! Hah!”
+
+ Go back in time and look at the DS
+ which was hated by the industry (who analysts referred to it
+ as Nintendo doing another Virtual Boy). The industry did not
+ understand the platform and just dumped many PSP ports or
+ mini-game collections on it. While this was going on,
+ Nintendo focused on the downmarket with games such as
+ Brain Age and Nintendogs as well as a few tiers
+ above that with New Super Mario Brothers. After a
+ year on the market, Super Mario Kart DS and Animal
+ Crossing DS came out. As you know, games like Brain
+ Age and Nintendogs became huge hits which
+ attracted new gamers. And these new gamers then swam
+ upmarket to turn Mario Kart DS, New Super Mario Brothers,
+ and Animal Crossing DS into huge hits (than they
+ would have been without those lower tier games). The
+ installed base for the DS surged which attracted more third
+ party support but mostly meant support for upper market
+ games such as Dragon Quest IX and the Final Fantasy
+ and Dragon Quest remakes. As the DS swam upstream, the
+ uppermarket games that were coming on the PSP began to be
+ stolen by the DS.
+
+ The Wii is advancing in the same way.
+ Nintendo focused on the downmarket with games such as Wii
+ Sports, Wii Play, and Wii Fit which all became
+ hits. Third parties become confused and made mini-game
+ compilations. After a year, slightly higher tier Nintendo
+ games come out such as Mario Kart Wii and Super
+ Smash Brothers Brawl and Super Mario Galaxy.
+ These games will become bigger hits because of the success
+ of lower tier games such as Wii Sports sending new
+ consumers upstream. Just as the DS has become the darling of
+ hardcore gamers, so too will the Wii as the system moves
+ upstream.
+
+ The birdmen eventually understood the
+ DS. They realized it wasn’t about making retarded games
+ (what they nicely label ‘casual games’) but hitting
+ different tiers. They could make a simple RPG or a puzzle
+ game to satisfy those customers on that tier. They realized
+ casual gaming does not necessarily mean passion-less gaming.
+
+ While the journalists and analysts
+ parrot one another with “casual gaming” speeches and
+ rhetoric, keep in mind Nintendo’s plan. The strategy is to
+ start with the Blue Ocean, seize and dominate the lower tier
+ (which the industry doesn’t really care for anyway), and
+ then slowly move upstream.
+
+ What happens when Nintendo moves
+ upstream? Competitors have two choices:
+
+ 1) Flee. Many companies will
+ gladly ‘cede’ this new market. After all, this new market is
+ not very profitable to the competitor and, besides, the
+ competitor clearly is getting tons of money through the
+ upmarket. While this choice works for the short term, the
+ problem is that the encroaching company will swim upstream
+ and begin to take customers away. Fleeing to the upmarket
+ means ceding more and more of the market to the newcomer.
+ Eventually, the competitor will have nowhere else to flee
+ and will go out of business or be reduced to a niche.
+
+ 2) Fight. Some companies realize that fleeing will
+ ensure their demise so they stay and fight the newcomer for
+ that market. However, the newcomer is patient for growth but
+ impatient for profit. The competitor will likely be unable
+ to defend that tier due to the newcomer gaining more profit.
+ The battle becomes attrition until angry investors let the
+ company’s managers know they do not enjoy them wasting so
+ much money fighting over a market that has little profit in
+ it. The investors will say the upmarket has plenty of profit
+ to satisfy the company’s needs for growth. So, eventually,
+ the competitor will decide to flee upmarket.
+
+ Imagine Nintendo using The Blue
+ Ocean Strategy to gain a foothold in the market, attract
+ new gamers, former gamers, and dominate on the downmarket.
+ Once successful there, Nintendo slowly moves upstream with
+ superior business models which prove more profitable than
+ the competitors (that attracts more and more third parties).
+ As Nintendo moves upstream into the upper markets, Sony and
+ Microsoft either fight or end up retreating upstream. Since
+ Nintendo has a more profitable business model, they will win
+ any fight over a tier with Microsoft and Sony. As Sony and
+ Microsoft retreat upmarket, Nintendo follows. Eventually,
+ Sony and Microsoft either become niches or leave the gaming
+ market entirely.
+
+ “NOOOOO!!!!” a hardcore gamer screams
+ in sudden realization.
+
+ You see it, don’t you? You now are
+ suddenly seeing the Big Picture. Now, when you hear Sony
+ says that they think Final Fantasy XIII or Metal
+ Gear Solid 4 to ‘save them’, you realize they are
+ relying on the upmarket. Just now, Nintendo announced paid
+ online services and even download content. “What does this
+ mean?” asks a reader. It is a sign that Nintendo is moving
+ upstream into the upmarket, into the more hardcore areas.
+
+ The tsunamis were just the beginning. Malstrom puffs on
+ his cigar while standing in knee-deep water. He points to
+ you. Remember this room? Here are the statues of all of
+ gaming’s heroes. Malstrom held up out his palm, and you
+ see a drop of water fall into it. You look up to see the
+ roof leaking. “The water is rising!” you shout.
+
+ Yes. The Old Era will soon be gone. Enjoy its last gasp. We
+ are in the midst of a huge shift where little will be as it
+ once was.
+
+ But my hope is that people will stop
+ being birdmen. Instead of looking at Nintendo’s games, their
+ marketing, or their online and say, “Oh? That is for casual
+ gamers! This means they are going for people who don’t
+ normally play games! LOL! I AM SO INSIGHTFUL!!!” they will
+ instead look at Nintendo starting at the bottom of the tiers
+ and moving their way up.
+
+ A thoughtful reader asks, “Malstrom,
+ this is an interesting and, indeed, ingenious strategy
+ Nintendo is using of creating a very profitable business
+ model, aiming to dominate the lower tiers, and then move up.
+ The competitors cannot compete because they will not be as
+ profitable so they will lose the attrition wars and can only
+ retreat upmarket. What is the name of this strategy?”
+
+ It is called Disruption.
+
+ I could find only one voice that
+ appeared to see the disruption for what is was. Unlike
+ others, who in hindsight described the Wii-mote as the
+ ‘Nintendo disruption’, he recognized it in the software as
+ far back when the DS hit its stride:
+
+ “Ultimately, what is happening is an + entirely unexpected and unlooked-for resurgence in the + concept of the games console as a vector for "edutainment" + and reference software - and one which could shape much of + the future of our industry. Just as disruptive technology is + set to prove vital to the coming console generation, so + too will this disruptive trend in software be key - and + the ability of publishers and platform-holders to + embrace this trend could help to decide the winners + and losers of the coming years.”The console market revolves around + software, not hardware. While it is understandable to see + the Wii-mote or the touchscreen as the disruption, we should + remember that both are nothing but pieces of plastic until + software comes into play. People only buy hardware to get to + the software.
+
+ -Rob Fahey, 06-2006 Commentary, Source: + + http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=17739
+
+ Casual game phenomenon? No. It is a + disruptive game phenomenon. Despite all the talk about + ‘casual games’, do you ever hear Nintendo (whose games are + creating the big so-called ‘casual’ boom) join the ‘casual + games are the future’ chorus? Of course not! It is because + they are following the path of disruption, not the path of + casual games (whatever that means). If there is a fad, it is + the Industry’s sudden romance with ‘casual games’ for they + see them as easy money (which they will soon discover that + there is no easy money in this business).
+
+ ”Mr. Iwata has been focusing on these key thoughts truly + for about the last three years. These are excerpts from a + variety of these speeches whether it’s at Tokyo game show, + GDC, even our own E3 events. They are all focused on + creating disruptive technologies, approaching the market + in a different way offering new news and innovation to the + consumer. We can't simply expand the market. If + that's all we try to do, slowly this industry will die. + It is our responsibility to make games for all skill levels. + Technology can't advance the business.”Not only does Reggie say that Iwata and + he are focused on the disruption strategy, he even says that + Nintendo’s aim is not to simply expand the market. Yet, + despite this clear statement, the conventional wisdom is + that Nintendo’s success is due to only to ‘expansion’ and + ‘aiming at the casual gamers’. All skill levels mean all + tiers, not just the ‘casual’ ones at the bottom.
+
+ -Reggie Fils-Aime, November 4, 2005 SOURCE: + http://ds.ign.com/articles/664/664482p2.html
+
+ I admit I find myself in astonishment. + This is the process I am seeing:
+
+ Nintendo: “We are following the + strategy of disruption!”
+ NPD: “Nintendo wins!”
+ Journalist: “How are you + winning, Nintendo?”
+ Nintendo: “We are following the strategy of + disruption!”
+ Journalist: (ignores Nintendo) “What is going on + here, analysts and third parties?”
+ Analyst: “It is a casual gamer boom!”
+ Third Parties: “OMG! Easy money! Quick guys, everyone + start making casual games!”
+ Nintendo: “We are following the strategy of + disruption!”
+ Journalist: (philosophically) “Will casual games + cause the downfall of the hardcore games? Let me write many + editorials about this!”
+ Analyst: (philosophically) “Is + the casual game boom a fad? Let us pontificate over this.”
+ Third Parties: “Hey guys! How you like my casual + games? They sure are snazzy! I will make millions! I am such + the business whiz!”
+ Nintendo: “We are following the strategy of + disruption!”
+ Journalist: (scratches head) “You hear something?”
+ Analyst: “It was just Nintendo speaking. They are + saying the same thing.”
+ Journalist: “Yeah! Haha! Same old marketing speak. I + am so much smarter about business than Nintendo. In my next + interview with Iwata, I’ll give him some business lessons.”
+ Third Parties: (cries) “Oh no! My casual games are + not selling!”
+ Journalist: “Obviously, this is because people buy + Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games.”
+ Analyst: “Nintendo needs to assist these third + parties in getting their casual games to sell.”
+ Third Parties: “That’s right! + They need to do what WE want them to!”
+ Nintendo: “We are following the + strategy of disruption!”
+ Journalist: (yawns) “Is that all they say? (becomes + excited) Ohhh! Look! A new hardcore game is being made with + fresh textures.” (runs off)
+ Analyst: “Obviously, Sony and Microsoft are branching + with casual games themselves. Poor Nintendo. Too bad they + are out of tricks. I expect Playstation 3 to be surpassing + them in a year or two. The market revolves around technology + you know.”
+ Third Parties: “My casual games aren’t selling? Why!? + I do not understand!”
+
+ Is it not amazing how everyone talks + about the casual gamer boom except Nintendo? Instead, + Nintendo keeps talking disruption while everyone either + ignores these quotes or misinterpret ‘disruption’ to mean + ‘change’ or ‘innovation’.
+
+
+What is Iwata saying here? He is asking for game developers + to focus on making disruptive games, not casual games. ‘All + work’ means even the higher tiers.”Our adventure is still ahead of us. Nintendo is + committed to creating an environment where all of your + work can prosper. I began today saying that + disruption is not just a strategy for Nintendo.”
+
+
+ -Satoru Iwata, GDC 2006 “Disrupting Development”. SOURCE: + http://wii.ign.com/articles/698/698588p4.html
+
+
+ The Low Tier Train has Already Passed
+
+ ”But Malstrom!” you say. “If the lowest tier was passed + over, then isn’t it good that all these companies are aiming + at it? This abandoned tier is now priority number one.”
+
+ Fool! It is a gold rush. There is a + saying: there is not much gold when everyone fishes from the + same stream. There is also a saying that when a business + opportunity hits the newspapers, it is way too late for + investment.
+
+
+ “You can only sell so many + products to the same customer. The games industry has + done a good job growing the core customer, but when you + start looking at the casual landscape … you’re really + looking at everybody.”If Mr. Lange would put his words to + their natural conclusion, he would realize that he is doing + what he condemns. The low tier customers cannot absorb tons + of products. No tier can.
+
+ -Chip Lange, general manager of EA Hasbro Studio. SOURCE: + http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/
+
+ +
+ “Everyone is mimicking everybody + else.”Go! Go! Captain Obvious!
+
+ -Michael Pachter. SOURCE: + http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/
+
+ Even Sega has pointed out the worrying trend:
+
+
+ ”But I do also believe that a lot of Western + publishers are only looking at the Wii for casual and + family gaming, and I think that's a mistake – I think + there's a lot more opportunity there on the Wii. The Wii + isn't just about Wii Tennis and Mario & Sonic; it's about so + much more."“But Malstrom! If this is the wrong + path for publishers, what should they be doing?”
+
+ -Simon Jeffrey, President of Sega of America. SOURCE: + http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/sega-pigeonholing-wii-only-for-casual-is-a-mistake/?biz=
+
+ Friend, realize that Nintendo did not + make a Nintendogs 2. While they did make a Brain Age 2 and + Brain Age Academy, the brain games have stopped. There is no + Wii Sports 2 or Wii Play 2. Outside of novel approaches, + such as Wii Music and Wii Fit, what else is Nintendo making + in the Tier 1?
+
+ ”That is all we know….”
+
+ Nintendo is already busy putting out + Tier 2 and Tier 3 titles. The Wii Zapper and Wii Wheel are + the ‘bridges’ to move Tier 1 gamers upstream.
+
+
+ ”Reggie feels Mario Kart Wii is a ‘bridge game.’”I’m surprised that people miss a big clue being the + wheel that comes with it. “No, Malstrom! Wheels come with + games all the time!” Silence! I have had enough of you.
+
+ -Matt Cassamassina in an IGN podcast. SOURCE: + http://www.nintendoeverything.com/?p=723
+
+ The solution is for these publishers to create bridge games + and aim more at Tier 2 and Tier 3 titles rather than have + all of them aim at Tier 1. This strategy… no idiocy, of them + all aiming at the same person is going to backfire. I + haven’t seen this stupidity in this industry since… well… + since them all making PS3/Xbox 360 HD games because “Top Box + systems are the next wave, Malstrom! LOL!”
+
+ Some developers do understand the bigger picture event + though they aren’t familiar with the disruption label.
+
+ ”The way I look at casual games...I think a lot of people + view it as a threat…+
+
+ ”I think, what it is, it's a nice gateway drug. It makes + people understand the principles of gaming.
+
+ ”Let's not kid ourselves. When I grew up playing on Atari - + those are the casual games of today. Pac-Man is a casual + game, Centipede...All those things would be considered + casual games now. Tetris is a casual game. There was no + concept of a casual game back then...
+
+ ”I think it is a nice gateway drug. I think it is going to + strictly expand the market, which doesn't scare me very + much. +“I think what BioShock did was, we said if we're going + to have a complex game we have to invite the gamer to + explore that complexity rather than just throwing it in + their face and saying ‘Deal with it.’
+
+
+ ”Nothing on the scale of a Wii Sports, but again, Wii + Bowling is like the ultimate gateway drug and God bless them + for figuring that out because there is no barrier of entry. + ‘Hey, can you go like that?’ [swings arm] That's what you do + in bowling, that's what you do in Wii Sports.“It's not that [casual gaming] scares me. It excites + me.
+
+ ”I think there's a much better chance of people who wouldn't + normally be interested in games going in and thinking ‘I'm + interested in the history of Rome. I'll buy that strategy + game,’ whereas before they would have been overwhelmed by + the very concept of it.”
+
+ -Kevin Levine, Creative Director for “Bioshock”. Interview + by GameIndustry.biz. SOURCE: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33596
+ Mr. Levine, drawing on the experience
+ of the 80s, understands the concept of upstreaming (or as he
+ says ‘gateway’ drug). Even back then, ‘hardcore’ games such
+ as Defender sold which no one thought was possible
+ and plenty of ‘hardcore’ RPG and strategy games were
+ blossoming on the computers (from the upstream of arcades
+ and the home console gamers).
+
+ What no one is pointing out that this deliberate upstreaming
+ process, of ‘gateway drugs’, is the big picture of
+ Nintendo’s strategy. The hardcore gamer, enraged that all
+ these “non-games” are coming out and his beloved HD consoles
+ are struggling, screams “This is madness!” No, it is
+ disruption. Nintendo is winning not because it is attacking
+ at the top and going on down but by attacking from the
+ bottom and moving up.
+
+ One game journalist sniffed the truth and shuddered:
+
+ “Bridge games,” reads the release, “let video game + novices and veterans play and have fun together.”You can smell the fear. Klepek connects ‘bridge game’ and + ‘gateway drug’ and becomes alarmed. Why, if Nintendo made + bridges for low tier users to go upward, it would destroy + the Hardcore Kingdom. Instead of facing this fear head on, + Klepek attempts to rationalize this possibility of + upstreaming away (similar to how everyone said, before + launch, Wii would just sell to Nintendo fans and have three + year lifecycle max to not deal with the fear that Wii could + reshape the market like DS did). He says ‘gateway drugs’ and + ‘bridge games’ may not be the same. But what is he basing + this on? HIS OPINION.
+
+ “A few weeks ago, “BioShock”’s Ken + Levine called “Wii Bowling” + + “the ultimate gateway drug.”
+
+ “But is it? Bridging casual and hardcore gamers implies each + is approaching a game from opposite directions — but having + fun on a common ground. That doesn’t mean the “novice” will + ever end up crossing to the other side. “Gateway games” and + “bridge games” may not be one and the same.
+
+ “Nintendo’s announced definition of a “bridge” game isn’t + necessarily Wii specific, either. Does a “bridge” game mean + another player has to be a part of the action? I had several + friends watch me play through “Resident Evil,“ + simply because the game was so immersive, even to a viewer. + They never played it, but they experienced it.
+
+ “So far, the gameplay of “bridge games” falls on the simpler + side. Could Nintendo make a “bridge game” out of “Pikmin”? + And how would you make a more accessible version of + “The Legend of Zelda?” without scaring off the + hardcore?
+
+ “Do they need to?”
+
+ Patrick Klepek, MTV gaming post. SOURCE: http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2008/03/18/new-term-from-nintendo-bridge-games/ +
+
+ ”What’s wrong with that, Malstrom? Are we not allowed to + have opinions?”
+
+ What is wrong is that this is the business strategy arena, + not ‘is this game fun?’ arena the journalists tend to reside + in. Opinions don’t matter in the business strategy arena. + Strategies mean outcomes. Klepek doesn’t ask anyone at + Nintendo. He attempts to rationalize the possibility of + upstreaming away.
+
+ Since hardcore love ‘immersion’ games, he attempts to pin + bridge games on people watching him play Resident Evil. + Then, he attempts to try to dismiss it further by saying + Nintendo could not possibly make a bridge game out of Pikmin + or The Legend of Zelda without scaring off the hardcore. + Unfortunately for Klepek, Nintendo did just that with Zelda: + Phantom Hourglass. The next Pikmin is practically guaranteed + to be a ‘bridge’ title as well. (I sent an email to him + asking him his thoughts on the DS simple games being the + gateway drugs to the bigger games to eventually stealing the + precious ‘hardcore’ titles like Dragon Quest 9. He + never replied.)
+
+ As you can see from above, ‘disruption’ will not be the + conclusion in anyone in this industry for Nintendo’s + success. They will, instead, mistake correlation for + causation, see these ‘casual games’, and think all they need + to do is make ‘casual games’ for instant money.
+
+ You can tell much about someone by their criticisms. The + Industry criticizing the Wii because it is a “fad” aptly + describes the Industry. That is all they do, chase one fad + after the next. Now, my birdmen, what is the fad are you + going to chase once the ‘casual games’ have run their + course? Why would someone invest in an entertainment company + that is doing exactly what everyone else is? Imitation is + suicide, and mimicry is the masking of the talent-less.
+
+
++ + More like moths to a flame. The fad was not in + Nintendo’s strategy but in third parties (incorrect) + interpretation of Nintendo’s strategy. Trying to escape + their hardcore labyrinth, many are donning waxy casual wings + to fly over the vast Blue Ocean. Those wings will melt and + many millions will be lost as they plunge into the deep."There's going to be a lot of dead bodies in the side of + the road in casual gaming. If you're a developer, beware the + glut, because there's a lot of content coming...We're about + to emerge from this cocoon, and there will be all different + kinds of butterflies."
+
+
+ -PlayFirst CEO John Welch GDC 2008: "The Promise of Casual + Games."
+ +
+ 
+
+ -Disclaimer-
+
+ -The more colorful graphs were created
+ by Kathie Sierra, writer of The Passionate User blog, and
+ former game developer for Virgin, Amblin’, and MGM.
+
+ -Analogy of the birdmen to put on feathers rather than study
+ flight was graciously taken from Professor Christensen of
+ Innovator’s Dilemma fame who uses it to describe
+ businesses trying to ride a disruptive wave but do not know
+ it is disruption.
+