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<title> Birdmen and the Casual Fallacy</title>
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<div id="content" class="posts">
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<h1><b>Birdmen and the Casual Fallacy</b></h1>
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<p class="author"><em>by</em> Sean Malstrom</p>
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<div class="entry">
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<p class="MsoNormal">
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<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/birdman2.jpg" border="0" height="178" width="225"><br>
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<br>
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Centuries ago, men attempted to fly by putting wings on
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their arms and flapping really hard. Logically, in their
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minds, it should have worked. Birds fly. Birds have wings.
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Therefore, having wings should mean man will fly.<br>
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<br>
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The gentlemen, puffed with pride,
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failed every time. Had they examined the nature of flight,
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as opposed to the nature of birds, they would have realized
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the concept of lift (as Bernoulli did). One must examine the
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physics of the flight rather than putting feathers on one’s
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arms in imitation of birds. The descendants of these birdmen
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are with us today. In the gaming industry, they represent
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some of the highest gaming executives and esteemed analysts.<br>
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<br>
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Nintendo is flying high. Rather than
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examine the nature of this flight, the birdmen are
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mesmerized by the feathers. The analysts and executives do
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not see the concepts of disruption and don’t even understand
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the Blue Ocean principles (though they think they do). The
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feathers they see on Nintendo’s ascent are <i>casual games</i>.
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Therefore, they surmise, if they make <i>casual games</i>
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then they will be flying high with Nintendo.<br>
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<br>
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There is nothing new here. Years ago,
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when <i>Grand Theft Auto 3</i> hit big, all the birdmen
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began putting out <i>Grand Theft Auto 3</i> clones. Years
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before that, it was first person shooters. More years before
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that, it was bloody fighters. One can find the birdmen back
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in the 8-bit generation making platformers. They would look
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at <i>Super Mario Brothers</i> and go, “Oh, I get it! We
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just need to make a game with cute music, colorful world,
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and upgrades like the <i>magic mushroom</i>!” Slapping wings
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on their arms, these games flopped. Amazingly, despite how
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many times the birdmen fall down, each generation they are
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ready to put on feathers and jump off a cliff.<b><br>
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<br>
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<br>
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How the Casual Fallacy was Born<br>
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<br>
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</b>The game industry was, and still is,
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distinctively hardcore. They generate their profits from
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sequels and big blockbuster games. The developers are all
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hardcore. The publishers are generally hardcore as well.<br>
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<br>
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When a hardcore gamer looks at a
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hardcore game, he sees <i>sophistication, magnificence, </i>
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and, most important, <i>art</i> as if it were a mirror image
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facing him. When a hardcore gamer looks as a casual game, he
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sees <i>simplicity</i>, <i>non-art, easiness, </i>and, in
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sum, a <i>retardation of gaming.</i> Hardcore view casual
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games not as progress in gaming but as games tailor made for
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gaming retards.<br>
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<br>
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“Retards!?” says a shocked reader.
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“Surely you can’t say what you mean!” Why not? When a casual
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gamer picks up the standard dual shock controller, he gets
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confused. He doesn’t have the patience to wade through these
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elaborate 3d worlds or memorize fourteen button
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combinations. While the hardcore call him “stupid”, he
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retaliates by calling gaming “stupid”.<br>
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<br>
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Anytime you read ‘casual games’ in the
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news, just replace ‘casual’ with the word ‘retard’ and you
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will get how it is truly perceived by the industry. “There
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is a casual gamer boom!” should translate to “There is a
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retard gamer boom!”. The “EA Casual Games Division” really
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is translated to “EA Retard Games Division”. “Why are you
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calling casual gamers retarded!?” thunders one reader. I am
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not. I am saying that the hardcore industry is the one who
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thinks this way. ‘Casual’ is just a nice way of saying
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‘dumb’ in their eyes.<br>
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<br>
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The reason why hardcore gamers’ hearts
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sink when a company says they will make the game include
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‘casuals’ is because they know that all the edge,
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difficulty, and passion will be ripped out to make a
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generic, easy, and soul-less game.<br>
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<br>
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Despite every company and their dog
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making these ‘casual’ games, the so-called casual audience
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is not buying them (just as they didn’t buy the platformer
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clones of the 8-bit generation, the fighter clones of the
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16-bit generation, the GTA clones of last generation, and so
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on). When seeing their ‘casual games’ flop while seeing
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Nintendo’s ‘casual’ games in the bestsellers, the third
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parties growl and say, “IT IS ALL NINTENDO’S FAULT! People
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only buy Nintendo games! Third parties can’t succeed on this
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platform!”<br>
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<br>
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The problem is not in these companies’
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execution of their plan. The problem is their world-view.
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Their perception is totally off, and it is costing these
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companies millions upon millions of dollars. Don’t you
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think, guys, that it is time to think about things a littler
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harder before you waste more millions?<br>
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<br>
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<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/birdman4.jpg" border="0" height="230" width="230"><br>
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<br>
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<b><br>
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There is No Casual Gamer<br>
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<br>
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</b>“What!” echoes someone from the
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balcony. “If this is true, then what will we use for this
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generation’s meme? What will our editorialists write about?
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We have spilled so much ink on this subject and apply the
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‘casual gaming’ template to every story that comes out. How
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can we exist without it?”<br>
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<br>
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I do not know nor do I care. Hopefully,
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you birdmen can become a little more original.<br>
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<br>
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Take the industry of home speakers (as
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many gamers are familiar with it). There is a wide range of
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product lines, is there not Mr. Reader?<br>
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<br>
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“That is so,” replied Mr. Reader.
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“There are very basic, bargain based speakers to the mid
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range. Then, there is the more expensive high range.”<br>
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<br>
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Very well… So the higher one goes, the
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more expensive it gets?<br>
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<br>
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“Yes, Mr. Malstrom. Upper tier speakers
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are EXTREMELY expensive.”<br>
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<br>
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Now tell me, my figment-of-my-words,
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how does user knowledge act along the product line?<br>
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<br>
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“Well, knowledge is the defining
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characteristic of the tiers. The more knowledge one has,
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that means the more audiophile one is, the more likely he or
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she will reach for the upper tier. At the bottom, the users
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know little about audio and do not care to know. The ones at
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the top are very passionate about their audio and will pick
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out separate speakers and subwoofer just to maximize their
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experience.”<br>
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<br>
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Are you saying the people on the bottom
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tier are stupid? Are they just casual listeners?<br>
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<br>
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“Only an upper tier person would define
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them as ‘casual’. They just don’t have that much passion
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about audio so they don’t have much knowledge.”<br>
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<br>
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And what creates this passion?<br>
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<br>
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Mr. Reader smiled. “By having audio
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they want to listen to.”<br>
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<br>
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If there is audio they want to listen
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to, they will start buying these speakers, become more
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knowledgeable, and keep upgrading those speakers as they
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move up to the higher tier?<br>
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<br>
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“Yes.”<b><br>
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<br>
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The Upmarket and the Downmarket<br>
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<br>
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</b>There is no casual gamer. There is no
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hardcore gamer. There is only the downmarket and the
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upmarket.<br>
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<br>
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In any type of product, there is a set
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of obstacles that need to be realized before the product can
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be enjoyed. Some people, especially technical savvy, can get
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through these barriers sooner than others.<br>
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<br>
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<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/featuritis.jpg" border="0" height="343" width="440"></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Compare the above graph to users’
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experience in game software. The simple games of the Atari
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days have undeniably become more complex. To those who grew
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up with video game consoles, they were able to stretch their
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user peaks. These current players, who call themselves the
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hardcore, became the upmarket.<br>
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<br>
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Many people did not grow up with video
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games or kept playing them after the Atari 2600 and NES.
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Look at the above graph and think of their reaction to
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playing games today. Obviously, they will be frustrated as
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they look in the manual, swear at themselves, and generally
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conclude that gaming isn’t for them. Someone content with <i>
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Pong</i> is not going to ‘jump in’ a huge 3d game world.<br>
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<br>
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When the upmarket views the so-called
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casual games or even games of the past (such as the classics
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on the Virtual Console), they are on the left side thinking
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“Nice, but I wish I could do more…” The games are not
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elaborate enough for them. In Wii Tennis, the upmarket keeps
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saying, “The game is nice but I wish I could move my player
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around myself” or “Wii Play is nice but I wish the games
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were more elaborate” or “Downloading Mario Kart 64 is nice
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but I wish I could play it online with new tracks…”<br>
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<br>
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Obviously, the pleasure thresholds of
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upmarket and downmarket differ (with a variety of different
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users in the middle). But for simplification purposes, based
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on these two areas, we get two different paths to user
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experience:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">
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<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/kickasscurvetwo.jpg" border="0" height="458" width="444"></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Let me ask you an honest question. Take
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your favorite games or, rather, the games that put a great
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first impression on you. How soon were you kicking ass in
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these games?<br>
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<br>
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Most likely, very soon. Richard
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Garriott, aka Lord British, revealed many years ago (back
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when Origin Systems still existed) why <i>Diablo</i> and the
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RTS games such as Red Alert and Warcraft 2 became so
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popular. With <i>Diablo</i>, it is because you level up
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extremely fast at first. You feel like a badass early on
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which encourages you to go further. The RTS games did the
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same with the first missions of <i>Warcraft 2</i> and <i>Red
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Alert</i> as extremely simple (the first <i>Red Alert</i>
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Soviet mission had the player just point and click to tell
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planes where to bomb). Anyone who has played <i>World of
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Warcraft</i> will realize how fast the game makes one feel
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like a ‘badass’ in the first ten levels of the game. Other
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MMORPGs start off much slower which would explain their
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slower sales.<br>
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<br>
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These downmarket users, if properly
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treated, will travel upstream to become upmarket users. <i>
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World of Warcraft</i> novices often become the most die-hard
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raiders. Many had <i>Command and Conquer</i> or <i>Warcraft
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2/Starcraft</i> as their first RTS. They played the simple
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levels and moved upstream to more sophistication. (It should
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be noted that <i>World of Warcraft</i>, <i>Warcraft 2, Red
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Alert</i>, and <i>Diablo</i> are set up to take advantage of
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this. The first units or choices the player has are small
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but it branches over time and becomes more complex.)
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Miyamoto was surprised that the Touch Generation games on
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the DS had users go upstream to play <i>Mario Kart DS</i>
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and <i>New Super Mario Brothers</i> (both of which broke
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sales records).<b><br>
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<br>
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<br>
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The Upstream Games<br>
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<br>
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</b>When you think back to the great classics of gaming, one
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finds games such as <i>Pac-Man, Super Mario Brothers, Sonic
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the Hedgehog, Mega Man 2, Dragon Quest, Legend of Zelda, </i>
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among other software. While all these games are obsolete in
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technological terms and, perhaps, even in genre terms,
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significant talent was used to build them. Some may argue
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that the talent in those games is even superior to today’s
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games! While these games were much simpler with less
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features, they still required the same amount of talent and
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force of creativity that today’s blockbusters do.<br>
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<br>
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The current generation, the High
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Definition generation, ups the ante with offering different
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visual displays for different television sets. Considering
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most people do not really know what ‘high definition’ means
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(or even how to hook up their consoles to the internet), it
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is clear that gaming’s complexity is advancing further than
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most people can adapt.<br>
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<br>
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Today, what is considered an “8-bit
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game” would be considered a “casual game”. Evidence of this
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is seen with 8-bit and 16-bit spiritual sequels emerging
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only on handhelds while the consoles stay near the more
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complex games. Ports of <i>Super Mario Brothers, Sonic the
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Hedgehog, </i>and <i>The Legend of Zelda </i>have appeared
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on handhelds. What used to be classics have become damned as
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“casual” games. This is the current industry hive-mind view.
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This is the hardcore view. But what is the reality?<br>
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<br>
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The reality is that all industries,
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including gaming, exist in a series of tiers. While the
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tiers of gaming are debatable, I have provided a sufficient
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list for this discussion:</p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center">
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<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/tiers.gif" border="0" height="384" width="512"></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Let me give examples of these tiers:<br>
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<br>
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<b>Tactical RPG/Strategy- </b><i>Fire
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Emblem, Final Fantasy Tactics, Master of Orion, Command and
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Conquer, Warcraft, MMORPGs</i><b><br>
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Epic RPG-</b> (‘epic’ meaning very
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story based) Later <i>Final Fantasy</i> and <i>Dragon Quest</i>
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games, <i>Ultima</i>, practically most JRPGs<b><br>
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Tactical Shooter-</b> <i>Ghost
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Recon, SOCOM, Counter-Strike</i><b><br>
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First Person Shooter- </b><i>Halo,
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Unreal Tournament, Call of Duty</i><b><br>
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Third Person Shooter- </b><i>Gears
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of War, Grand Theft Auto 3, Resident Evil</i><b><br>
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3D Action Adventure- </b><i>Zelda:
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Ocarina of Time, Eternal Darkness<br>
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</i><b>3D Platformer- </b><i>Super Mario
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64, Super Mario Galaxy, Rayman 2</i><b><br>
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Basic RPG- </b>Early <i>Final
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Fantasy </i>and <i>Dragon Quest. </i>(Likely) <i>Dragon
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Quest IX</i><b><br>
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Action Adventure- </b><i>Legend of
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Zelda, Metroid</i><b><br>
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Adventure- </b><i>King’s Quest,
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Monkey Island</i><b><br>
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2D Platformer- </b><i>Super Mario
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Brothers, Sonic the Hedgehog</i><b><br>
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Mini-Games / Arcade Style- </b><i>
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Wii Play, Centipede, Galaga, Pac-Man</i><b><br>
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Puzzle- </b><i>Tetris, Dr. Mario</i><b><br>
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Non-Fiction Game- </b><i>Wii Sports,
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Wii Fit, Brain Age, Nintendogs, </i>cookbook software, how
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to learn English, etc. <i>Flight Simulator, Sims<br>
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<br>
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</i>Most of these tiers are
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self-explanatory. The further upmarket one goes, the more
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one gets drawn into another world. (Before someone writes me
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and says, “WHERE IS THE RACING TIER, MALSTROM!???”, realize
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|
that the list is not intended to be perfect but just show
|
|||
|
the difference of segments from upmarket to downmarket.) The
|
|||
|
non-fiction games do not attempt to pull the player into a
|
|||
|
fiction world. Games such as Brain Age or even Flight
|
|||
|
Simulator cater to the players’ interests of the real world.
|
|||
|
Brain Age promises to make you smarter, Wii Fit tries to get
|
|||
|
you more ‘fit’, and so on. Wii Sports is popular because
|
|||
|
people actually BELIEVE they are using the same exact sports
|
|||
|
skills in the game as opposed to just pushing some buttons
|
|||
|
and playing ‘make-believe’.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The problem is not that games have
|
|||
|
become more complex over the years; it is that lower tiered
|
|||
|
games were becoming less and less made. This meant less new
|
|||
|
gamers and that gaming became less exciting to the
|
|||
|
mainstream. Games have become more expensive to make which
|
|||
|
means publishers have huddled toward the upmarket.
|
|||
|
Meanwhile, the downmarket was being unused until flash games
|
|||
|
and online simple games caught on big with computer users.<br></p><blockquote cite="http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33498">
|
|||
|
"There are more Flash installs available in people's
|
|||
|
homes and even on mobile devices than all of the sold
|
|||
|
consoles of the last two generations put together. It is
|
|||
|
everywhere…”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Raph Koster, president of Areae and designer of Ultima
|
|||
|
Online and Star Wars: Galaxies. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33498">http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33498</a><i><br></i></blockquote><i>
|
|||
|
</i>These downmarket tiers became abandoned
|
|||
|
and became a ‘Blue Ocean’ where no one was fighting over.
|
|||
|
Nintendo aimed to become dominant on these lower tiers, the
|
|||
|
Blue Ocean, first.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Since these lower tier games were the
|
|||
|
most critical for Nintendo, they put their first string
|
|||
|
teams to make games such as <i>Nintendogs, Brain Age, Wii
|
|||
|
Sports, Wii Play</i>, among others. Birdmen, who mistake the
|
|||
|
downmarket for ‘casual games’ (i.e. retard games), keep
|
|||
|
putting their third or fourth string teams to make these
|
|||
|
type of games.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/easeofusegonewrong.jpg" border="0" height="473" width="416"><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The above picture illustrates the Casual Fallacy well. <i>
|
|||
|
Wii Sports </i>is a game stuffed with complexity (of its
|
|||
|
physics), replay value, and many game modes. It is what
|
|||
|
people want: a friendly but powerful game. Consumers want
|
|||
|
more games like <i>Wii Sports </i>but they get the plastic
|
|||
|
dog instead. Sure the game is ‘friendly’, but the power
|
|||
|
behind it is gone. It is a neutered game castrated from any
|
|||
|
purpose.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
If the reader happens to be a member of
|
|||
|
the NES Generation, compare the games of youth of the
|
|||
|
so-called ‘kids games’ you got on the computer to <i>Super
|
|||
|
Mario Brothers </i>and <i>Legend of Zelda</i>. The tailor
|
|||
|
made ‘kids games’ then ended up plastic dogs while the
|
|||
|
Nintendo classics ended up being the real dog. Western
|
|||
|
publishers were stunned that the 1980s children were
|
|||
|
abandoning their specialized ‘kids games’ to play these
|
|||
|
‘Japanese games’.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
If the reader happens to be a <i>
|
|||
|
hardcore player</i> (oh, that word!), compare games like <i>
|
|||
|
Grand Theft Auto 3 </i>and <i>Halo </i>to wannabe GTA and
|
|||
|
Halo clones. The wannabe hardcore games will put in
|
|||
|
gratuitous violence or sex or space aliens to ‘give the game
|
|||
|
the edge’. These wannabe games end up the plastic dog which
|
|||
|
annoys hardcore gamers to no end.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Birdmen can only make plastic dogs. In
|
|||
|
order to make the real dog, they would have to study the
|
|||
|
concept of flight instead of studying the wings. Passionate
|
|||
|
developers also tend to create passionate products (which is
|
|||
|
why Blizzard puts on any business contract that its
|
|||
|
developers will be free to make the games they want). Will
|
|||
|
hardcore developers have a passion to create downmarket
|
|||
|
products? They certainly didn’t become game developers to
|
|||
|
make competitors to <i>Peggle</i> and online flash games.
|
|||
|
What we will end up with are more plastic dogs.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Why does the industry not treat the
|
|||
|
downmarket well? Outside of developer passion, the answer
|
|||
|
comes down to money. The upmarket games are far more
|
|||
|
profitable. It is a sure thing that the upmarket will buy
|
|||
|
the next first person shooter or epic RPG. And since the
|
|||
|
upmarket games take the most time and are costly, publishers
|
|||
|
will only put their first string teams on those games. The
|
|||
|
downmarket, that the industry thinks are its worst
|
|||
|
customers, sees these games as less profitable and cheaper
|
|||
|
to make. In their mind, it is perfectly logical to assign
|
|||
|
their fourth string teams to do these games as if they mess
|
|||
|
up, little harm is done.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Nintendo considered the downmarket to
|
|||
|
be the most important and put their first string teams to
|
|||
|
make games such as <i>Wii Sports</i>. The result is an
|
|||
|
explosion of sales with these low tier Nintendo titles. The
|
|||
|
industry looks at this and, idiotically, says, “Oh! A casual
|
|||
|
gamer boom! Quick! Let us all start making casual games to
|
|||
|
ride this wave!”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The problems with this worldview are:<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
1) The lower tier market has always been around. It was just
|
|||
|
overshot and abandoned as generations passed on. The high
|
|||
|
growth of online flash games showed this market was always
|
|||
|
alive and well.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
2) The industry still is putting their fourth string teams
|
|||
|
to work on these games. When they make a Wii game, they make
|
|||
|
it for ‘casuals’ which means they attempt to make the game
|
|||
|
playable for retards (in their minds). They dumb everything
|
|||
|
down, put cutesy generic art and music in, and ultimately
|
|||
|
make a flash game on steroids. Dull! Dull! Dull!<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Don’t take it from me. Miyamoto has
|
|||
|
told them personally:<blockquote cite="http://www.gamespot.com/pages/unions/read_article.php?topic_id=25522312&union_id=8913">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">"If there's only one piece of advice
|
|||
|
that I could give to the managers of third party companies,
|
|||
|
it would be that a lot of times it seems that when they're
|
|||
|
putting games out on Nintendo hardware, those games are
|
|||
|
being developed by their third-string team or their
|
|||
|
fourth-string team. Maybe that's because they see those
|
|||
|
products as being unique projects or somewhat smaller-scale
|
|||
|
projects. But when Nintendo puts out a title that is
|
|||
|
designed to really support and sell its hardware, that title
|
|||
|
is always developed by one of our number one teams. And so I
|
|||
|
think that when it comes to the question of trying to
|
|||
|
compete with our software, I would really like to see the
|
|||
|
parties try to do that with their number one teams rather
|
|||
|
than with the third- or fourth-string teams. [Laughs.]"<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Shigeru Miyamoto, SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; text-underline: single" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.gamespot.com/pages/unions/read_article.php?topic_id=25522312&union_id=8913">
|
|||
|
http://www.gamespot.com/pages/unions/read_article.php?topic_id=25522312&union_id=8913</a></font></blockquote><br>
|
|||
|
<b>The ‘Flight’ is in the Developmental Process</b><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
As someone studying Nintendo recently, I have noticed how
|
|||
|
the games Nintendo produces are of a very different vein
|
|||
|
than third parties. Third party games tend to be more hit
|
|||
|
and miss while Nintendo games almost assuredly have some
|
|||
|
sort of quality there which makes their games easy buys (and
|
|||
|
builds up tremendous customer loyalty). Some companies are
|
|||
|
able to replicate this same effect such as Blizzard. Also,
|
|||
|
interesting, the Nintendo/Blizzard games tend to hit both
|
|||
|
upmarket and downmarket users. What are they doing
|
|||
|
differently?<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”People buy Nintendo and Blizzard games because of their
|
|||
|
franchise worlds.” But other third party games have as rich
|
|||
|
of a franchise world. “Nintendo and Blizzard have the money
|
|||
|
to delay their games and perfect them. Most third parties do
|
|||
|
not have that luxury.” While this is true, it raises the
|
|||
|
question as to how Nintendo and Blizzard got to where they
|
|||
|
are. They started small like everyone else and, at a time,
|
|||
|
also didn’t have the money.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
I have found a major clue to the ‘flight’ is in the
|
|||
|
developmental process.<br>
|
|||
|
<p></p>
|
|||
|
<p>
|
|||
|
<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/developmentmodels.png" border="0" height="382" width="376"></p>
|
|||
|
<p>
|
|||
|
Most third parties have the development cycle of the
|
|||
|
waterfall pictured above. Production is King to them. They
|
|||
|
focus on utilizing their assets in the most effective
|
|||
|
manner. Western companies are under more pressure to deliver
|
|||
|
quarterly results which often results in more rushed games.
|
|||
|
This approach is not ‘wrong’ as effective production does
|
|||
|
lower cost and create profit. This also explains the parade
|
|||
|
of sequels and ‘samey’ type games.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Nintendo and companies like Blizzard use the Spiral where
|
|||
|
customer satisfaction is King. This leads to delays in
|
|||
|
production, projects pulled entirely, and constant testing.
|
|||
|
The result is a product that creates passionate users.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The third one, the question mark, is where the User is King.
|
|||
|
Many companies know their current ‘waterfall’ production
|
|||
|
based method has a future of rising costs and declining
|
|||
|
passion so they are turning to the Internet to make the User
|
|||
|
as King. These include episodic gaming as well as
|
|||
|
downloadable content. Will Wright is moving in this
|
|||
|
direction. The idea is that development cycles begin moving
|
|||
|
extremely fast as now the user is directly or indirectly
|
|||
|
involved. Companies are confusing the User as King to mean
|
|||
|
Customer Satisfaction is King.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”But Malstrom, what is the difference?”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The market did not need <i>Super Mario Brothers</i> until
|
|||
|
Miyamoto created it. Then, the market could not live without
|
|||
|
it.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Blizzard studied MMORPGs like <i>Everquest</i> and realized
|
|||
|
there were too many barriers in the game that kept many
|
|||
|
people from ‘kicking ass’. “How do we fix this?” the
|
|||
|
Blizzard developers asked. The market did not need <i>World
|
|||
|
of Warcraft</i> until Blizzard created it. Then, the market
|
|||
|
could not live without it.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
When Will Wright made <i>The Sims</i>, he did not focus on
|
|||
|
the ‘waterfall’ effective production method. The market did
|
|||
|
not need <i>The Sims</i> until Wright created it. Then, the
|
|||
|
market could not live without it.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
When Capcom (back in the good old days where small
|
|||
|
development teams could harness their passions) made <i>Mega
|
|||
|
Man II</i>, the market did not need it (<i>Mega Man</i> did
|
|||
|
not sell well). But once it was made, the market could not
|
|||
|
live without it.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The difference between Customer Satisfaction and letting the
|
|||
|
User in control is the matter of surprise which is critical
|
|||
|
in entertainment. It is ridiculous to ask your customers
|
|||
|
what surprises them.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
High definition games are just pushing development more in
|
|||
|
the ‘waterfall’ model more due to the rising cost of art
|
|||
|
assets. With more emphasis on the production model, this
|
|||
|
will create less interesting games (and explains why the
|
|||
|
Industry got into a rut as development costs went up over
|
|||
|
the generations).<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
It should also be noted that analysts tend to gauge the
|
|||
|
market based on production methods. You never will read
|
|||
|
Pachter talking about customer satisfaction but about the
|
|||
|
production model in the software or hardware company. He
|
|||
|
will talk about lowering component costs but not the
|
|||
|
behavior of the customers themselves. <b>Until Third Parties
|
|||
|
re-tool their development process away from the production
|
|||
|
based ‘waterfall method’, they will never equal the success
|
|||
|
or the passionate customers created by Nintendo, Blizzard,
|
|||
|
and others.</b><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/imperfectionscurve.jpg" border="0" height="299" width="448"><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Why are independent games suddenly becoming more appealing
|
|||
|
than big budget games? Why do retro games hold appeal while
|
|||
|
their huge budget ‘re-imaginings’ become flops? Why is
|
|||
|
pixilated <i>Super Mario Brothers </i>revered while slick
|
|||
|
and voiced modern Mario merely tolerated?<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
There are diminishing returns with production values. For
|
|||
|
some reason in entertainment, if the production values are
|
|||
|
too high, the customers react unfavorably. This phenomenon
|
|||
|
can be seen in movies and music as well. I personally
|
|||
|
believe that if the customer senses too much production
|
|||
|
value, he or she will sense the product attempting to be
|
|||
|
more style over substance. The customer will then feel
|
|||
|
‘cheated’.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<i>Wii Sports </i>is an interesting case example. When the
|
|||
|
game was previewed, gamers said, “OMG! They have no legs!
|
|||
|
What is with these low poly-models?” Yet, undeniably, that
|
|||
|
leads to part of the product’s charm.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
While the so-called ‘casual games’ were overshot, it should
|
|||
|
be understood that production values are turning gaming more
|
|||
|
and more into style over substance. Even the hardcore gamers
|
|||
|
prefer the ‘good old days’ of <i>Tetris</i> over
|
|||
|
substance-less games with bloated production values. In
|
|||
|
order for companies to focus on the ‘flight’ as opposed to
|
|||
|
the ‘feathers’, they will need to examine to see if their
|
|||
|
production values are overshooting the market.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Advertisers, Not Consumers, Want Casual Games</b><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”But Malstrom! But Malstrom!” you say. “Reports are coming
|
|||
|
out (like this:
|
|||
|
<a style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; text-underline: single" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9400&Itemid=2">
|
|||
|
http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9400&Itemid=2</a>)
|
|||
|
which say Casual Games are booming! How can the Industry
|
|||
|
ignore such a trend?<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The answer is that the Industry has ignored these simple
|
|||
|
online games for quite a long time.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”I do not believe you! You just make up stuff to support
|
|||
|
your arguments.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
You want proof? Then you shall have it:</p>
|
|||
|
<p><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt">2006</span></b></p><blockquote cite="http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2005/jul05/07-19CasualGaming.mspx">
|
|||
|
<p><font face="Arial">”While sales of boxed PC games at retail are on a steep
|
|||
|
decline -- 38 million games sold in the United States for
|
|||
|
2005 compared with 47 million games sold in 2004, according
|
|||
|
to retail marking consultant the NPD Group -- <b>casual
|
|||
|
games are now enjoyed by an estimated 100 million PC users</b>,
|
|||
|
according to comScore Media Metrix.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-CNN.com. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/fun.games/02/28/casual.games/</font></p>
|
|||
|
</blockquote>A couple of years ago, even CNN was doing stories of the
|
|||
|
rise of so-called casual games. What were our Industry
|
|||
|
managers saying at this time? Oh yeah. They were saying that
|
|||
|
Wii was a joke and the future was with high definition
|
|||
|
graphics and top box media functions. It is amazing how the
|
|||
|
Industry ‘discovers’ casual games only when the Wii succeeds
|
|||
|
despite signs of popularity of low tier games everywhere at
|
|||
|
this time period.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b><span style="font-size:18.0pt">2005</span></b><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2005/jul05/07-19CasualGaming.mspx">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”’Casual’ games have been getting some serious attention
|
|||
|
lately. Just last week, the International Game Developers
|
|||
|
Association (IGDA) – a large independent, non-profit
|
|||
|
organization for game software developers – announced the
|
|||
|
formation of the Casual Games Special Interest Group in
|
|||
|
response to new opportunities in the casual gaming sector.
|
|||
|
Over the next few weeks, the Game Initiative – a leading
|
|||
|
producer of game industry events – will be hosting two
|
|||
|
separate conferences focusing on the casual games market. <b>
|
|||
|
Microsoft’s Casual Games group will be a major sponsor of
|
|||
|
both conferences.</b>”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-<b>Microsoft Press Release.</b> SOURCE:
|
|||
|
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/features/2005/jul05/07-19CasualGaming.mspx</font></blockquote>Microsoft was singing the praises of ‘casual games’ back in
|
|||
|
2005, sponsored conferences on the subject, and considered
|
|||
|
it to be the reason for new spectacular growth for them.
|
|||
|
Today, in 2008, Microsoft says that it was taken by surprise
|
|||
|
by the ‘casual boom’ with Wii’s success, but we know this is
|
|||
|
categorically a lie. Microsoft always knew about the ‘boom’
|
|||
|
of ‘casual games’.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b><span style="font-size:18.0pt">2004</span></b><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/gaming.html">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”Lyon and Richards are among the millions - mostly women
|
|||
|
35 to 54 - who play casual games online. It's a gray market
|
|||
|
that earns companies $450 million annually, largely through
|
|||
|
advertising (less than 2 percent of players actually pay to
|
|||
|
subscribe). That number will triple by 2007, according to
|
|||
|
tech research firm IDC. And talk about sticky: Pogo's
|
|||
|
players spend about 24.8 million hours on the site each
|
|||
|
month, says Nielsen/NetRatings. ‘Checkers is a big pickup
|
|||
|
scene,’ says Frentzel. ‘And there's one guy who's written in
|
|||
|
thousands of times requesting that we update our statistics
|
|||
|
for hearts.’ </font><p></p>
|
|||
|
<p><font face="Arial">“<b>‘Casual games are tapping into a Middle American
|
|||
|
audience like few services on the Web do,’ </b>says Erick
|
|||
|
Hachenburg, senior vice president of global publishing for
|
|||
|
EA. His company is locked in a bitter fight with Microsoft
|
|||
|
and Yahoo! to serve this market. All three are expanding
|
|||
|
their design teams, courting third-party developers, and
|
|||
|
releasing hundreds of titles. But they all know there's only
|
|||
|
one surefire way to win. As Pogo game producer Todd
|
|||
|
Kerpelman puts it, ‘Make the next
|
|||
|
<cite style="font-style: normal">
|
|||
|
Tetris</cite>.’”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-</font><span class="pgtoolsl"><font face="Arial">David Kushner, “The Wrinkled Future
|
|||
|
of Online Games”. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; text-underline: single" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/gaming.html">
|
|||
|
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/gaming.html</a></font></span></p></blockquote>
|
|||
|
<span class="pgtoolsl">The use of games as a
|
|||
|
pick-up scene might be the catalyst of Nolan Bushnell
|
|||
|
deciding to make uWink. Anyway, even back in 2004, <i>four
|
|||
|
years ago</i>, there was much talk about the casual gaming
|
|||
|
boom.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
</span><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt">2003</span></b><span class="pgtoolsl"><i><br>
|
|||
|
</i></span><br><blockquote cite="http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:USDvLnFA4tkJ:query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html%3Fres%3D9501E7DA163AF935A15755C0A9659C8B63&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”At Yahoo Games, the leading online game site,
|
|||
|
Nielsen/NetRatings reports more than 8.5 million visitors
|
|||
|
each month. Daniel Hart, the site's general manager, said
|
|||
|
that its visitors spend more than 5.5 billion minutes a
|
|||
|
month playing its casual games -- an average of more than 20
|
|||
|
minutes a day per user. <br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
“‘Casual gamers represent a substantial part of the overall
|
|||
|
game audience if you include every possible game outlet and
|
|||
|
genre,’ said Jay Horowitz, an analyst with Jupiter Research
|
|||
|
who follows the video game industry. <b>‘In terms of
|
|||
|
audience, 70 percent of the online community play casual
|
|||
|
games.’<br>
|
|||
|
</b><br>
|
|||
|
”<b>But he and other video game experts say the surge in
|
|||
|
casual gaming is about much more. Rising costs and
|
|||
|
production times for sophisticated games for hard-core
|
|||
|
players have helped give companies like Gameloft,
|
|||
|
WildTangent and Hexacto incentives to produce more and
|
|||
|
better casual games.</b> So have improved wireless services
|
|||
|
and handsets, advanced gaming software formats, and firmer
|
|||
|
pricing structures for the sale and delivery of games
|
|||
|
online. And as those already drawn to games grow older and
|
|||
|
have busier lives, they are looking for less time-consuming
|
|||
|
diversions.”</font><p></p>
|
|||
|
<p class="MsoNormal"><font face="Arial">-Michel Marriott, “The
|
|||
|
Un-Doom
|
|||
|
Boom”, Published: June 26, 2003. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:USDvLnFA4tkJ:query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html%3Fres%3D9501E7DA163AF935A15755C0A9659C8B63&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us&client=firefox-a</font></p></blockquote><p></p>
|
|||
|
<p><br>
|
|||
|
Near the beginning of last generation, stories (such as
|
|||
|
the above New York Times article) were coming out about the
|
|||
|
boom in casual gaming. With more than five years to see the
|
|||
|
trend of increased desire in lower tier games, how could so
|
|||
|
many game industry managers miss the boat?<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<font size="2">Malstrom</font><font size="2"> motions you to come
|
|||
|
closer. “Shh…” Malstrom whispers.</font><font size="1"> “The real reason why so
|
|||
|
many in the Industry have rallied about casual gaming since
|
|||
|
the domination of the Wii is to escape blame for piss poor
|
|||
|
decision making. They talk of casual gaming like it was a
|
|||
|
‘new trend’ despite it always existing and its increase on
|
|||
|
PCs were generating newspaper articles half a decade ago. By
|
|||
|
describing ‘casual gaming’ as an unforeseen explosion, they
|
|||
|
save their necks from investors who would have rightly
|
|||
|
penalized them for making bad business decisions. Pre-Wii,
|
|||
|
Nintendo talked about appealing to non-gamers and former
|
|||
|
gamers. Casual gamers are neither of those two.”</font><i><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
</i>The truth is that regular PC games and console games
|
|||
|
have begun overshooting the market for quite some time now.
|
|||
|
What is described as a ‘casual game’ used to be the ‘bread
|
|||
|
and butter’ of the Game Industry not too many years ago.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The big problem with current research methods is that they
|
|||
|
are polling active gamers. What about the non-active ones?
|
|||
|
And are the more hardcore game genres in true decline or are
|
|||
|
the games overshooting the market and generating more and
|
|||
|
more former gamers? (It should be noted that Nintendo
|
|||
|
focused their market research on non-active gamers including
|
|||
|
non-gamers and former gamers. Nintendo never aimed at
|
|||
|
capturing ‘casual gamers’ in the same context that birdmen
|
|||
|
speak today.)<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The most important thing to keep in mind with ‘casual
|
|||
|
gaming’ on PCs is that revenue is generally made from
|
|||
|
advertisements. Currently, there is an advertisement crisis
|
|||
|
as less and less people watch television or read newspapers.
|
|||
|
Consumers now have greater control on being able to edit out
|
|||
|
advertisements. Advertising agencies are desperate to reach
|
|||
|
people. It is no surprise that advertisers are rushing over
|
|||
|
one another to get to these ‘casual games’.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The problem is that advertisers will want these games more
|
|||
|
than the consumers will. “But look at the growth, Malstrom!”
|
|||
|
Trends are double edged. It is good to be in front of them
|
|||
|
but bad when one is on the wrong side. Low tier game growth
|
|||
|
will not go on forever especially with everyone treating it
|
|||
|
like a new gold rush. Soon, advertisers will be pushing
|
|||
|
these games more than consumers demand.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
While Nintendo accurately interpreted the growth in low tier
|
|||
|
gaming on PCs to mean the traditional market was overshot,
|
|||
|
this ‘Blue Ocean’ would allow Nintendo to perform the
|
|||
|
nastiest business move conceived. It will be Microsoft and
|
|||
|
Sony’s worst nightmare.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Difference Between World-Views</b></p>
|
|||
|
<p class="MsoNormal">Nintendo’s worldview is simple: aim at
|
|||
|
making hits on the downmarket to make the Wii platform
|
|||
|
dominate the lower tiers. Then slowly move upmarket.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The rest of the industry has a
|
|||
|
completely different worldview: view the ‘explosion’ in
|
|||
|
downmarket games as a unique phenomenon (in this case, the
|
|||
|
fictional “Casual Games Phenomenon”), and then assign many
|
|||
|
teams to make these ‘casual games’. Instead of trying to
|
|||
|
understand Nintendo’s flight, they are putting on wings and
|
|||
|
trying to flap. Wii gamers become frustrated while
|
|||
|
Playstation 3 and Xbox 360 gamers laugh and say, “If you
|
|||
|
want to play REAL games, buy a real <i>gaming</i> console!
|
|||
|
Hah! Hah!”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Go back in time and look at the DS
|
|||
|
which was hated by the industry (who analysts referred to it
|
|||
|
as Nintendo doing another Virtual Boy). The industry did not
|
|||
|
understand the platform and just dumped many PSP ports or
|
|||
|
mini-game collections on it. While this was going on,
|
|||
|
Nintendo focused on the downmarket with games such as <i>
|
|||
|
Brain Age</i> and <i>Nintendogs</i> as well as a few tiers
|
|||
|
above that with <i>New Super Mario Brothers.</i> After a
|
|||
|
year on the market, <i>Super Mario Kart DS</i> and <i>Animal
|
|||
|
Crossing DS</i> came out. As you know, games like <i>Brain
|
|||
|
Age </i>and <i>Nintendogs </i>became huge hits which
|
|||
|
attracted new gamers. And these new gamers then swam
|
|||
|
upmarket to turn <i>Mario Kart DS, New Super Mario Brothers,
|
|||
|
</i>and <i>Animal Crossing DS</i> into huge hits (than they
|
|||
|
would have been without those lower tier games). The
|
|||
|
installed base for the DS surged which attracted more third
|
|||
|
party support but mostly meant support for upper market
|
|||
|
games such as <i>Dragon Quest IX </i>and the Final Fantasy
|
|||
|
and Dragon Quest remakes. As the DS swam upstream, the
|
|||
|
uppermarket games that were coming on the PSP began to be
|
|||
|
stolen by the DS.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The Wii is advancing in the same way.
|
|||
|
Nintendo focused on the downmarket with games such as <i>Wii
|
|||
|
Sports, Wii Play, </i>and <i>Wii Fit</i> which all became
|
|||
|
hits. Third parties become confused and made mini-game
|
|||
|
compilations. After a year, slightly higher tier Nintendo
|
|||
|
games come out such as <i>Mario Kart Wii </i>and <i>Super
|
|||
|
Smash Brothers Brawl </i>and <i>Super Mario Galaxy</i>.
|
|||
|
These games will become bigger hits because of the success
|
|||
|
of lower tier games such as <i>Wii Sports</i> sending new
|
|||
|
consumers upstream. Just as the DS has become the darling of
|
|||
|
hardcore gamers, so too will the Wii as the system moves
|
|||
|
upstream.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The birdmen eventually understood the
|
|||
|
DS. They realized it wasn’t about making retarded games
|
|||
|
(what they nicely label ‘casual games’) but hitting
|
|||
|
different tiers. They could make a simple RPG or a puzzle
|
|||
|
game to satisfy those customers on that tier. They realized
|
|||
|
casual gaming does not necessarily mean passion-less gaming.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
While the journalists and analysts
|
|||
|
parrot one another with “casual gaming” speeches and
|
|||
|
rhetoric, keep in mind Nintendo’s plan. The strategy is to
|
|||
|
start with the Blue Ocean, seize and dominate the lower tier
|
|||
|
(which the industry doesn’t really care for anyway), and
|
|||
|
then <i>slowly move upstream</i>.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
What happens when Nintendo moves
|
|||
|
upstream? Competitors have two choices:<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
1) <b>Flee.</b> Many companies will
|
|||
|
gladly ‘cede’ this new market. After all, this new market is
|
|||
|
not very profitable to the competitor and, besides, the
|
|||
|
competitor clearly is getting tons of money through the
|
|||
|
upmarket. While this choice works for the short term, the
|
|||
|
problem is that the encroaching company will swim upstream
|
|||
|
and begin to take customers away. Fleeing to the upmarket
|
|||
|
means ceding more and more of the market to the newcomer.
|
|||
|
Eventually, the competitor will have nowhere else to flee
|
|||
|
and will go out of business or be reduced to a niche.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
2) <b>Fight.</b> Some companies realize that fleeing will
|
|||
|
ensure their demise so they stay and fight the newcomer for
|
|||
|
that market. However, the newcomer is patient for growth but
|
|||
|
impatient for profit. The competitor will likely be unable
|
|||
|
to defend that tier due to the newcomer gaining more profit.
|
|||
|
The battle becomes attrition until angry investors let the
|
|||
|
company’s managers know they do not enjoy them wasting so
|
|||
|
much money fighting over a market that has little profit in
|
|||
|
it. The investors will say the upmarket has plenty of profit
|
|||
|
to satisfy the company’s needs for growth. So, eventually,
|
|||
|
the competitor will decide to flee upmarket.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Imagine Nintendo using <i>The Blue
|
|||
|
Ocean Strategy </i>to gain a foothold in the market, attract
|
|||
|
new gamers, former gamers, and dominate on the downmarket.
|
|||
|
Once successful there, Nintendo slowly moves upstream with
|
|||
|
superior business models which prove more profitable than
|
|||
|
the competitors (that attracts more and more third parties).
|
|||
|
As Nintendo moves upstream into the upper markets, Sony and
|
|||
|
Microsoft either fight or end up retreating upstream. Since
|
|||
|
Nintendo has a more profitable business model, they will win
|
|||
|
any fight over a tier with Microsoft and Sony. As Sony and
|
|||
|
Microsoft retreat upmarket, Nintendo follows. Eventually,
|
|||
|
Sony and Microsoft either become niches or leave the gaming
|
|||
|
market entirely.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
“NOOOOO!!!!” a hardcore gamer screams
|
|||
|
in sudden realization.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
You see it, don’t you? You now are
|
|||
|
suddenly seeing the Big Picture. Now, when you hear Sony
|
|||
|
says that they think <i>Final Fantasy XIII </i>or <i>Metal
|
|||
|
Gear Solid 4</i> to ‘save them’, you realize they are
|
|||
|
relying on the upmarket. Just now, Nintendo announced paid
|
|||
|
online services and even download content. “What does this
|
|||
|
mean?” asks a reader. It is a sign that Nintendo is moving
|
|||
|
upstream into the upmarket, into the more hardcore areas.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The tsunamis were just the beginning. <i>Malstrom puffs on
|
|||
|
his cigar while standing in knee-deep water. He points to
|
|||
|
you. </i>Remember this room? Here are the statues of all of
|
|||
|
gaming’s heroes. <i>Malstrom held up out his palm, and you
|
|||
|
see a drop of water fall into it. You look up to see the
|
|||
|
roof leaking.</i> “The water is rising!” you shout.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Yes. The Old Era will soon be gone. Enjoy its last gasp. We
|
|||
|
are in the midst of a huge shift where little will be as it
|
|||
|
once was.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
But my hope is that people will stop
|
|||
|
being birdmen. Instead of looking at Nintendo’s games, their
|
|||
|
marketing, or their online and say, “Oh? That is for casual
|
|||
|
gamers! This means they are going for people who don’t
|
|||
|
normally play games! LOL! I AM SO INSIGHTFUL!!!” they will
|
|||
|
instead look at Nintendo starting at the bottom of the tiers
|
|||
|
and moving their way up.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
A thoughtful reader asks, “Malstrom,
|
|||
|
this is an interesting and, indeed, ingenious strategy
|
|||
|
Nintendo is using of creating a very profitable business
|
|||
|
model, aiming to dominate the lower tiers, and then move up.
|
|||
|
The competitors cannot compete because they will not be as
|
|||
|
profitable so they will lose the attrition wars and can only
|
|||
|
retreat upmarket. What is the name of this strategy?”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
It is called <i>Disruption</i>.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
I could find only one voice that
|
|||
|
appeared to see the disruption for what is was. Unlike
|
|||
|
others, who in hindsight described the Wii-mote as the
|
|||
|
‘Nintendo disruption’, he recognized it in the software as
|
|||
|
far back when the DS hit its stride:<i><br>
|
|||
|
</i></p><blockquote cite="http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=17739">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">“Ultimately, what is happening is an
|
|||
|
entirely unexpected and unlooked-for resurgence in the
|
|||
|
concept of the games console as a vector for "edutainment"
|
|||
|
and reference software - and one which could shape much of
|
|||
|
the future of our industry. Just as disruptive technology is
|
|||
|
set to prove vital to the coming console generation, <b>so
|
|||
|
too will this disruptive trend in software be key -</b> and
|
|||
|
<b>the ability</b> of publishers and platform-holders <b>to
|
|||
|
embrace</b> this trend could help <b>to decide the winners
|
|||
|
and losers of the coming years.</b>”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Rob Fahey, 06-2006 Commentary, Source:
|
|||
|
<a style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; text-underline: single" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=17739">
|
|||
|
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=17739</a></font></blockquote>The console market revolves around
|
|||
|
software, not hardware. While it is understandable to see
|
|||
|
the Wii-mote or the touchscreen as the disruption, we should
|
|||
|
remember that both are nothing but pieces of plastic until
|
|||
|
software comes into play. People only buy hardware to get to
|
|||
|
the software.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Casual game phenomenon? No. It is a
|
|||
|
disruptive game phenomenon. Despite all the talk about
|
|||
|
‘casual games’, do you ever hear Nintendo (whose games are
|
|||
|
creating the big so-called ‘casual’ boom) join the ‘casual
|
|||
|
games are the future’ chorus? Of course not! It is because
|
|||
|
they are following the path of disruption, not the path of
|
|||
|
casual games (whatever that means). If there is a fad, it is
|
|||
|
the Industry’s sudden romance with ‘casual games’ for they
|
|||
|
see them as easy money (which they will soon discover that
|
|||
|
there is no easy money in this business).<i><br>
|
|||
|
<br></i><blockquote cite="http://ds.ign.com/articles/664/664482p2.html">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”Mr. Iwata has been focusing on these key thoughts truly
|
|||
|
for about the last three years. These are excerpts from a
|
|||
|
variety of these speeches whether it’s at Tokyo game show,
|
|||
|
GDC, even our own E3 events. They are all <b>focused on
|
|||
|
creating disruptive technologies</b>, approaching the market
|
|||
|
in a different way offering new news and innovation to the
|
|||
|
consumer. <b>We can't simply expand the market.</b> If
|
|||
|
that's all we try to do, slowly this industry will die. <b>
|
|||
|
It is our responsibility to make games for all skill levels.
|
|||
|
Technology can't advance the business.</b>”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Reggie Fils-Aime, November 4, 2005 SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://ds.ign.com/articles/664/664482p2.html">http://ds.ign.com/articles/664/664482p2.html</a></font></blockquote>Not only does Reggie say that Iwata and
|
|||
|
he are focused on the disruption strategy, he even says that
|
|||
|
Nintendo’s aim is not to simply expand the market. Yet,
|
|||
|
despite this clear statement, the conventional wisdom is
|
|||
|
that Nintendo’s success is due to only to ‘expansion’ and
|
|||
|
‘aiming at the casual gamers’. All skill levels mean all
|
|||
|
tiers, not just the ‘casual’ ones at the bottom.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
I admit I find myself in astonishment.
|
|||
|
This is the process I am seeing:<b><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Nintendo:</b> “We are following the
|
|||
|
strategy of disruption!”<b><br>
|
|||
|
NPD: </b>“Nintendo wins!”<b><br>
|
|||
|
Journalist:</b> “How are you
|
|||
|
winning, Nintendo?”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Nintendo:</b> “We are following the strategy of
|
|||
|
disruption!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Journalist:</b> (ignores Nintendo) “What is going on
|
|||
|
here, analysts and third parties?”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Analyst:</b> “It is a casual gamer boom!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Third Parties:</b> “OMG! Easy money! Quick guys, everyone
|
|||
|
start making casual games!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Nintendo:</b> “We are following the strategy of
|
|||
|
disruption!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Journalist:</b> (philosophically) “Will casual games
|
|||
|
cause the downfall of the hardcore games? Let me write many
|
|||
|
editorials about this!”<b><br>
|
|||
|
Analyst:</b> (philosophically) “Is
|
|||
|
the casual game boom a fad? Let us pontificate over this.”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Third Parties:</b> “Hey guys! How you like my casual
|
|||
|
games? They sure are snazzy! I will make millions! I am such
|
|||
|
the business whiz!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Nintendo: </b>“We are following the strategy of
|
|||
|
disruption!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Journalist: </b>(scratches head) “You hear something?”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Analyst: </b>“It was just Nintendo speaking. They are
|
|||
|
saying the same thing.”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Journalist:</b> “Yeah! Haha! Same old marketing speak. I
|
|||
|
am so much smarter about business than Nintendo. In my next
|
|||
|
interview with Iwata, I’ll give him some business lessons.”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Third Parties:</b> (cries) “Oh no! My casual games are
|
|||
|
not selling!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Journalist: </b>“Obviously, this is because people buy
|
|||
|
Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games.”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Analyst: </b>“Nintendo needs to assist these third
|
|||
|
parties in getting their casual games to sell.”<b><br>
|
|||
|
Third Parties:</b> “That’s right!
|
|||
|
They need to do what WE want them to!”<b><br>
|
|||
|
Nintendo: </b>“We are following the
|
|||
|
strategy of disruption!”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Journalist:</b> (yawns) “Is that all they say? (becomes
|
|||
|
excited) Ohhh! Look! A new hardcore game is being made with
|
|||
|
fresh textures.” (runs off)<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Analyst: </b>“Obviously, Sony and Microsoft are branching
|
|||
|
with casual games themselves. Poor Nintendo. Too bad they
|
|||
|
are out of tricks. I expect Playstation 3 to be surpassing
|
|||
|
them in a year or two. The market revolves around technology
|
|||
|
you know.”<br>
|
|||
|
<b>Third Parties:</b> “My casual games aren’t selling? Why!?
|
|||
|
I do not understand!”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Is it not amazing how everyone talks
|
|||
|
about the casual gamer boom except Nintendo? Instead,
|
|||
|
Nintendo keeps talking disruption while everyone either
|
|||
|
ignores these quotes or misinterpret ‘disruption’ to mean
|
|||
|
‘change’ or ‘innovation’.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://wii.ign.com/articles/698/698588p4.html">
|
|||
|
<p>”Our adventure is still ahead of us. Nintendo is
|
|||
|
committed to creating an environment where <b>all of your
|
|||
|
work can prosper</b>. I began today saying that <b>
|
|||
|
disruption is not just a strategy for Nintendo.</b>”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Satoru Iwata, GDC 2006 “Disrupting Development”. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
http://wii.ign.com/articles/698/698588p4.html</p>
|
|||
|
</blockquote>What is Iwata saying here? He is asking for game developers
|
|||
|
to focus on making disruptive games, not casual games. ‘All
|
|||
|
work’ means even the higher tiers.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<b>The Low Tier Train has Already Passed<br>
|
|||
|
</b><br>
|
|||
|
”But Malstrom!” you say. “If the lowest tier was passed
|
|||
|
over, then isn’t it good that all these companies are aiming
|
|||
|
at it? This abandoned tier is now priority number one.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Fool! It is a gold rush. There is a
|
|||
|
saying: there is not much gold when everyone fishes from the
|
|||
|
same stream. There is also a saying that when a business
|
|||
|
opportunity hits the newspapers, it is way too late for
|
|||
|
investment.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">“<b>You can only sell so many
|
|||
|
products to the same customer.</b> The games industry has
|
|||
|
done a good job growing the core customer, but when you
|
|||
|
start looking at the casual landscape … you’re really
|
|||
|
looking at everybody.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Chip Lange, general manager of EA Hasbro Studio. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/">http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/</a></font></blockquote>If Mr. Lange would put his words to
|
|||
|
their natural conclusion, he would realize that he is doing
|
|||
|
what he condemns. The low tier customers cannot absorb tons
|
|||
|
of products. No tier can.<br>
|
|||
|
<i><br>
|
|||
|
</i>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">“Everyone is mimicking everybody
|
|||
|
else.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Michael Pachter. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23191679/</font></blockquote>Go! Go! Captain Obvious!<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Even Sega has pointed out the worrying trend:<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/sega-pigeonholing-wii-only-for-casual-is-a-mistake/?biz=">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”But I do also believe that a lot of <b>Western
|
|||
|
publishers</b> are only looking at the Wii for casual and
|
|||
|
family gaming, and <b>I think that's a mistake</b> – I think
|
|||
|
there's a lot more opportunity there on the Wii. The Wii
|
|||
|
isn't just about Wii Tennis and Mario & Sonic; it's about so
|
|||
|
much more."<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Simon Jeffrey, President of Sega of America. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/sega-pigeonholing-wii-only-for-casual-is-a-mistake/?biz=">http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/sega-pigeonholing-wii-only-for-casual-is-a-mistake/?biz=</a></font></blockquote>“But Malstrom! If this is the wrong
|
|||
|
path for publishers, what should they be doing?”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Friend, realize that Nintendo did not
|
|||
|
make a Nintendogs 2. While they did make a Brain Age 2 and
|
|||
|
Brain Age Academy, the brain games have stopped. There is no
|
|||
|
Wii Sports 2 or Wii Play 2. Outside of novel approaches,
|
|||
|
such as Wii Music and Wii Fit, what else is Nintendo making
|
|||
|
in the Tier 1?<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”That is all we know….”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Nintendo is already busy putting out
|
|||
|
Tier 2 and Tier 3 titles. The Wii Zapper and Wii Wheel are
|
|||
|
the ‘bridges’ to move Tier 1 gamers upstream.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.nintendoeverything.com/?p=723">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”Reggie feels Mario Kart Wii is a ‘bridge game.’”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Matt Cassamassina in an IGN podcast. SOURCE:
|
|||
|
<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.nintendoeverything.com/?p=723">http://www.nintendoeverything.com/?p=723</a></font></blockquote>I’m surprised that people miss a big clue being the
|
|||
|
wheel that comes with it. “No, Malstrom! Wheels come with
|
|||
|
games all the time!” Silence! I have had enough of you.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
The solution is for these publishers to create bridge games
|
|||
|
and aim more at Tier 2 and Tier 3 titles rather than have
|
|||
|
all of them aim at Tier 1. This strategy… no idiocy, of them
|
|||
|
all aiming at the same person is going to backfire. I
|
|||
|
haven’t seen this stupidity in this industry since… well…
|
|||
|
since them all making PS3/Xbox 360 HD games because “Top Box
|
|||
|
systems are the next wave, Malstrom! LOL!”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Some developers do understand the bigger picture event
|
|||
|
though they aren’t familiar with the disruption label.<br>
|
|||
|
<br><blockquote cite="http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33596">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">”The way I look at casual games...I think a lot of people
|
|||
|
view it as a threat…<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”I think, what it is, it's a nice gateway drug. It makes
|
|||
|
people understand the principles of gaming.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”Let's not kid ourselves. When I grew up playing on Atari -
|
|||
|
those are the casual games of today. Pac-Man is a casual
|
|||
|
game, Centipede...All those things would be considered
|
|||
|
casual games now. Tetris is a casual game. There was no
|
|||
|
concept of a casual game back then...<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”I think it is a nice gateway drug. I think it is going to
|
|||
|
strictly expand the market, which doesn't scare me very
|
|||
|
much.</font><p></p>
|
|||
|
<p><font face="Arial">“I think what BioShock did was, we said if we're going
|
|||
|
to have a complex game we have to invite the gamer to
|
|||
|
explore that complexity rather than just throwing it in
|
|||
|
their face and saying ‘Deal with it.’<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”Nothing on the scale of a Wii Sports, but again, Wii
|
|||
|
Bowling is like the ultimate gateway drug and God bless them
|
|||
|
for figuring that out because there is no barrier of entry.
|
|||
|
‘Hey, can you go like that?’ [swings arm] That's what you do
|
|||
|
in bowling, that's what you do in Wii Sports.</font></p>
|
|||
|
<p><font face="Arial">“It's not that [casual gaming] scares me. It excites
|
|||
|
me.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”I think there's a much better chance of people who wouldn't
|
|||
|
normally be interested in games going in and thinking ‘I'm
|
|||
|
interested in the history of Rome. I'll buy that strategy
|
|||
|
game,’ whereas before they would have been overwhelmed by
|
|||
|
the very concept of it.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Kevin Levine, Creative Director for “Bioshock”. Interview
|
|||
|
by GameIndustry.biz. SOURCE: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33596</font></p></blockquote><p></p>
|
|||
|
<p class="MsoNormal"><br>
|
|||
|
Mr. Levine, drawing on the experience
|
|||
|
of the 80s, understands the concept of upstreaming (or as he
|
|||
|
says ‘gateway’ drug). Even back then, ‘hardcore’ games such
|
|||
|
as <i>Defender</i> sold which no one thought was possible
|
|||
|
and plenty of ‘hardcore’ RPG and strategy games were
|
|||
|
blossoming on the computers (from the upstream of arcades
|
|||
|
and the home console gamers).<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
What no one is pointing out that this deliberate upstreaming
|
|||
|
process, of ‘gateway drugs’, is the big picture of
|
|||
|
Nintendo’s strategy. The hardcore gamer, enraged that all
|
|||
|
these “non-games” are coming out and his beloved HD consoles
|
|||
|
are struggling, screams “This is madness!” No, it is
|
|||
|
disruption. Nintendo is winning not because it is attacking
|
|||
|
at the top and going on down but by attacking from the
|
|||
|
bottom and moving up.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
One game journalist sniffed the truth and shuddered:<br>
|
|||
|
</p><blockquote cite="http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2008/03/18/new-term-from-nintendo-bridge-games/">
|
|||
|
<font face="Arial">“Bridge games,” reads the release, “let video game
|
|||
|
novices and veterans play and have fun together.”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
“A few weeks ago, “<strong>BioShock”</strong>’s <strong>Ken
|
|||
|
Levine</strong> called “Wii Bowling”
|
|||
|
<a style="color: blue; text-decoration: underline; text-underline: single" href="http://web.archive.org/web/20080410045214/http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=33596">
|
|||
|
<strong>“the ultimate gateway drug.”</strong><br>
|
|||
|
</a><br>
|
|||
|
“But is it? Bridging casual and hardcore gamers implies each
|
|||
|
is approaching a game from opposite directions — but having
|
|||
|
fun on a common ground. That doesn’t mean the “novice” will
|
|||
|
ever end up crossing to the other side. “Gateway games” and
|
|||
|
“bridge games” may not be one and the same.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
“Nintendo’s announced definition of a “bridge” game isn’t
|
|||
|
necessarily Wii specific, either. Does a “bridge” game mean
|
|||
|
another player has to be a part of the action? I had several
|
|||
|
friends watch me play through <strong>“Resident Evil</strong>,<strong>“</strong>
|
|||
|
simply because the game was so immersive, even to a viewer.
|
|||
|
They never played it, but they experienced it.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
“So far, the gameplay of “bridge games” falls on the simpler
|
|||
|
side. Could Nintendo make a “bridge game” out of <strong>“Pikmin”</strong>?
|
|||
|
And how would you make a more accessible version of <strong>
|
|||
|
“The Legend of Zelda?” </strong>without scaring off the
|
|||
|
hardcore?<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
“Do they need to?”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Patrick Klepek, MTV gaming post. SOURCE: http://multiplayerblog.mtv.com/2008/03/18/new-term-from-nintendo-bridge-games/
|
|||
|
</font></blockquote>You can smell the fear. Klepek connects ‘bridge game’ and
|
|||
|
‘gateway drug’ and becomes alarmed. Why, if Nintendo made
|
|||
|
bridges for low tier users to go upward, it would destroy
|
|||
|
the Hardcore Kingdom. Instead of facing this fear head on,
|
|||
|
Klepek attempts to rationalize this possibility of
|
|||
|
upstreaming away (similar to how everyone said, before
|
|||
|
launch, Wii would just sell to Nintendo fans and have three
|
|||
|
year lifecycle max to not deal with the fear that Wii could
|
|||
|
reshape the market like DS did). He says ‘gateway drugs’ and
|
|||
|
‘bridge games’ may not be the same. But what is he basing
|
|||
|
this on? HIS OPINION.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
”What’s wrong with that, Malstrom? Are we not allowed to
|
|||
|
have opinions?”<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
What is wrong is that this is the business strategy arena,
|
|||
|
not ‘is this game fun?’ arena the journalists tend to reside
|
|||
|
in. Opinions don’t matter in the business strategy arena.
|
|||
|
Strategies mean outcomes. Klepek doesn’t ask anyone at
|
|||
|
Nintendo. He attempts to rationalize the possibility of
|
|||
|
upstreaming away.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
Since hardcore love ‘immersion’ games, he attempts to pin
|
|||
|
bridge games on people watching him play Resident Evil.
|
|||
|
Then, he attempts to try to dismiss it further by saying
|
|||
|
Nintendo could not possibly make a bridge game out of Pikmin
|
|||
|
or The Legend of Zelda without scaring off the hardcore.
|
|||
|
Unfortunately for Klepek, Nintendo did just that with Zelda:
|
|||
|
Phantom Hourglass. The next Pikmin is practically guaranteed
|
|||
|
to be a ‘bridge’ title as well. (I sent an email to him
|
|||
|
asking him his thoughts on the DS simple games being the
|
|||
|
gateway drugs to the bigger games to eventually stealing the
|
|||
|
precious ‘hardcore’ titles like <i>Dragon Quest 9</i>. He
|
|||
|
never replied.) <br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
As you can see from above, ‘disruption’ will not be the
|
|||
|
conclusion in anyone in this industry for Nintendo’s
|
|||
|
success. They will, instead, mistake correlation for
|
|||
|
causation, see these ‘casual games’, and think all they need
|
|||
|
to do is make ‘casual games’ for instant money.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
You can tell much about someone by their criticisms. The
|
|||
|
Industry criticizing the Wii because it is a “fad” aptly
|
|||
|
describes the Industry. That is all they do, chase one fad
|
|||
|
after the next. Now, my birdmen, what is the fad are you
|
|||
|
going to chase once the ‘casual games’ have run their
|
|||
|
course? Why would someone invest in an entertainment company
|
|||
|
that is doing exactly what everyone else is? Imitation is
|
|||
|
suicide, and mimicry is the masking of the talent-less.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<blockquote cite="http://www.google.com/">
|
|||
|
<p><font face="Arial">"There's going to be a lot of dead bodies in the side of
|
|||
|
the road in casual gaming. If you're a developer, beware the
|
|||
|
glut, because there's a lot of content coming...We're about
|
|||
|
to emerge from this cocoon, and there will be all different
|
|||
|
kinds of butterflies."<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-PlayFirst CEO John Welch GDC 2008: "The Promise of Casual
|
|||
|
Games."</font></p>
|
|||
|
</blockquote>
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
More like moths to a flame. The fad was not in
|
|||
|
Nintendo’s strategy but in third parties (incorrect)
|
|||
|
interpretation of Nintendo’s strategy. Trying to escape
|
|||
|
their hardcore labyrinth, many are donning waxy casual wings
|
|||
|
to fly over the vast Blue Ocean. Those wings will melt and
|
|||
|
many millions will be lost as they plunge into the deep.<br>
|
|||
|
<p></p>
|
|||
|
<p class="MsoNormal">
|
|||
|
<img src="Birdmen%20and%20the%20Casual%20Fallacy_files/birdman.jpg" border="0" height="503" width="525"><br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
<font size="2">-Disclaimer-<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
</font><font size="1">-The more colorful graphs were created
|
|||
|
by Kathie Sierra, writer of The Passionate User blog, and
|
|||
|
former game developer for Virgin, Amblin’, and MGM.<br>
|
|||
|
<br>
|
|||
|
-Analogy of the birdmen to put on feathers rather than study
|
|||
|
flight was graciously taken from Professor Christensen of <i>
|
|||
|
Innovator’s Dilemma</i> fame who uses it to describe
|
|||
|
businesses trying to ride a disruptive wave but do not know
|
|||
|
it is disruption.</font></p><hr>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</div>
|
|||
|
</body></html>
|